The New Austerity  - Welcome to the Fourth World

By Justin Urquhart Stewart 09:12 27- Apr -2009

So much has already been written about the detail of the UK Budget that I am not going to repeat the excellent work of others. I am sure you have had far too much to read already. However perhaps there were some key measurements which I felt were especially graphic in describing the parlous situation of the British economy. It was Gillian Tett in last week’s FT that highlighted that the risk measurement of UK government gilts was now worse than Cadbury PLC. To explain, the cost of insuring a 5 year Gilt against default was “95 points” (0.95%) – which in English means that it costs £95,000 to insure £10 million worth of Gilts. By comparison Cadbury’s debt would only cost £50,000 to insure – which is a bit odd as they only produce chocolate money – still, maybe its worth more than I thought?

Additionally since last year, the 2009/10 UK budget deficit has managed to nearly double its size from a mere 6.3% of GDP to some 12.4% - that is the highest level of all our peer nations but, more worryingly, three times the percentage deficits of Argentina and Indonesia!  What then is the message from this?  Possibly a new category of nation has been formed? Maybe the UK is the first member of the new group of “4th World” nations – that is to say those nations with post development mature submerging economies.

As such our biggest issue will be one of confidence, especially when you ask who is going to finance our debt and at what price. This situation may become even worse if the UK is downgraded  and loses its “Triple A” rating which would yet further put up the costs of our funding. To get ourselves out of this we need statesmen and not just the usual selection of parochial politicians playing petty party politics – also known as P6.

If the financing numbers weren’t warning enough, then it was the Chancellor’s growth figures that seemed most astonishing. In any normal recession (if there is such a thing) a slowdown can often be seen to be followed by a balancing recovery; however in the current climate of capital destruction and flailing banks, the fuel for any recovery, let alone a dramatic one, is going to be in very short supply. Effectively we have had twenty years of growth concertinaed into a single decade further exacerbated by  a credit boom – ten years of fat which will now be followed by ten years of lean and mean. At least a slowdown or recession is usually quite predictable and expected – and remember our “Dear Leader” told us that he would make and set aside provisions for such times, however, we now know that no such provisions were made and that the granaries were not stocked during the years of surplus. We may have found our Potiphar, but where was our Joseph?

So what should be done now?

The answer lies in some very serious financial control for a limited number of years – almost a national social contract of austerity - if we are to try and stabilise this leaky craft.  Yes harsh cuts which will be both painful and unpopular, but maybe we should rather look at a VAT rise for several years with higher rates on certain products. At least this is discretionary for us all.  With this, should we consider full bank nationalisation to enforce policy faster and then the withdrawal of Stamp Duty on property for the same period of time? At least that would encourage further expenditure and speed up property price formations and certainty. The alternative is to leave the equivalent of another world war debt to our children.

We are, in any case, all going to have to consider our finances on a broader scale across the generations and not just as individuals with our own pots of coinage (including chocolate ones) but as families, sharing our costs and responsibilities in order to look after our larger family group. Thank heaven for professional financial planners.

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And finally....I know this is a regular occurrence but I regard it as an excellent barometer of the inefficiency of public expenditure and the abuse of the English language – I am referring of course to some of the ludicrous job titles and nomenclature that seem to have grown up, particularly around our public services.

Newcastle Council, for example, has appointed a “breast feeding support co-ordinator” – to do what I am not sure – and in fact I don’t really want to know.  Additionally Falkirk Council has appointed a “toothbrush assistant” along with a “cheer leading development officer” which must be essential to the efficient running of that authority. Windsor and Maidenhead however have thought that their local tax payers’ hard earned money should be directed towards employing a “roller disco coach” – how retro!

Who said there was a recession and a job crisis – such creativity must point towards the development of a dynamic UK economy at the cutting edge of the global innovation. Britain shall be known as a world leader in breast feeding co-ordination.

Have a good week.

Justin A. Urquhart Stewart
Director
Seven Investment Management Limited