Justin Urquhart Stewart

Watch out for the inebriated barmaid 15- Mar -2010
The term ‘crawling peg’ does bring to mind a somewhat inebriated barmaid character out of Eastenders. Forgive me, but I am not a regular viewer. This term over the past week has been cast around by those Beijing watchers trying to read the runes of the inscrutable Chinese leaders at the National People’s Congress. A Charging Elephant 8- Mar -2010
If anyone can say they have had a good recession it has to be India. In fact they didn’t seem to have had a recession at all. In 2008/9 her gross domestic product grew by 6.7%, with an increase forecasted for this year to 7.2%. However, of course with this there have been constraints, with both the government fiscal deficit rising and the rate of inflation creeping up. Although these have been a concern they seem not to be at worrying levels for the moment. The Great Sag 1- Mar -2010
As the figures come through and the runes are cast by the legions of experts and economists, there seems to be a discernable trend developing. The politicians of all colours are telling us, and will continue to do so until we finally have an election, that they have the perfect plan to lead us from the ‘slough of despond’ to the sunny uplands of economic success and safety. Here we will find lush fresh green verdant fields of economic success; sadly however I think we can increasingly see that such optimism may well be illusory if not intentionally misplaced. Reversing the decline for Mutuals? 22- Feb -2010
A great history but in a tough environment. The world of mutuals has not been an easy one. Many have glorious chronicles of the past dating back into the developing financial world in the Victorian era. A Global Fault Line 15- Feb -2010
I think we learned our lesson with the Titanic. It is always worth having enough lifeboats - or in this case even one. Seemingly the Euro was designed without one. China rising, China flexing 8- Feb -2010
No I am not going to go on about the usual tiresome tracts we hear and read about China. Yes we all know it is going to be big, butch and powerful, but I am amazed at the almost fawning expressions of confidence and appreciation that are trotted out – mostly from those presumably trying to entice us to put all our money into their funds. There Is Value In The Gloom 1- Feb -2010
After an appalling week of commentary on the UK, it is quite understandable for many to think that the country has something of a nasty whiff about it. All Things Must Change 25- Jan -2010
Can the City of London kindly stop moping around like a depressed basset hound. The Temperature of Chinese Porridge 18- Jan -2010
I don’t know what the Chinese translation of Goldilocks is but certainly she appears to be much sought after by them. The search for an economy which is neither too hot nor too cold has always been the most Herculean of tasks for any financial authority. The UK ‘A game of two halves’ 11- Jan -2010
Before the snow set in, there was a brief moment of economic enthusiasm (but certainly nothing that could be considered anything near euphoria). Say Goodbye to the Naughty Noughties - Welcome to the Lean (and probably Mean) Teens 21- Dec -2009
I suppose the end of a decade was never going to have the impact of the end of a millennium, but its passing is barely being whimpered let alone celebrated. Perhaps we will look back at this first decade of the new century as being the ‘Noughties’ marked by the financial, consumer and property excesses that eventually exploded with such catastrophic consequences. Barking at the Bankers 14- Dec -2009
You may recall the Dangerous Dogs Act of 1991 which was the legislation rushed in as a response to some dreadful incidents of serious injury or death resulting from attacks by aggressive and uncontrolled dogs, particularly on children. These attacks received typically hysterical tabloid headlines, causing widespread public concern over the keeping of dangerous dogs and the result was some ill thought through knee jerk legislation. No Sovereign Immunity 7- Dec -2009
The term ‘Sovereign Lending’ implies the delightful possibility that we could lend out the Windsors for weddings, bah mitzvahs and sundry supermarket openings, which to a great extent I suppose is what they actually do, except on a somewhat grander scale. Sheikhs Rattled and Markets Roll 30- Nov -2009
So finally reality has come to the sparkling mirage of Dubai, and the result of the effective default became a seismic ripple around the globe. The Reincarnation of Old Economies 23- Nov -2009
In the dull grey light of an Autumnal dawn it can be quite difficult to envisage the dynamic regeneration of those older industrial centres whose ageing factory sites seem inevitably destined to be repackaged into ‘heritage centres’. Sometimes exposure and transparency go too far? 16- Nov -2009
The truth is that if all the customers put their bankers up against a wall (no, not to shoot them necessarily – no matter how tempting that may be on occasion) the bank concerned would almost always be unable to pay back everyone’s money at once. Is This The Next Area of Concern? 9- Nov -2009
So where is the next problem going to come from? Even though we haven’t anywhere nearly sorted out the mess from the last crisis, people are still desperately looking for the next one. Sadly the gift of foresight has not been given to me but at least some common sense might provide some help. So what bank would you like? 2- Nov -2009
Just what type of banking system do we want? It’s not often we get the chance to choose, but the actions and opinions of the EU authorities on our banks may well have thrown this whole question open. An interesting beat-combo 26- Oct -2009
So how was your ‘beat’? This has become the favourite word for US commentators for the past few days when discussing the recent string of quarterly corporate earnings coming out of the States. Autumn Sales start early 19- Oct -2009
The Autumn sales seem to have come around very quickly this year. First of all we read of the private equity firm, Blackstone’s sales plans for part of its portfolio of businesses. Potential Euro-fracture? 12- Oct -2009
Euro fractures - whilst much blame for the financial crisis has been thrown in the direction of the mud splattered ‘Anglo-Saxon’ financial regime, that is certainly not to say that all is fine and dandy in the ‘non Anglo-Saxon’ Euro world. Getting the Bonfire Lit 5- Oct -2009
I think I can hear the sound of something disappearing down the plug hole. It may just be the money supply. Money for Nothing! 28- Sep -2009
How about earning something for nothing? Well if you are a British bank then it seems that you can! Following on from the frustration that many have expressed at the lack and depth of bank lending, my colleague Peter Sleep has uncovered an excellent graph which perfectly illustrates where a good proportion of bank cash is currently being hoarded! Attack of the Rubber Chickens 21- Sep -2009
If there was one thing we could point to in the Great Depression that almost ensured the economic recession collapsed further into an extended and deepening depression, it was the imposition of a wave of protectionist tariff barriers that effectively killed off global trade for the next few years. An Air of Palpable Excitement 14- Sep -2009
I can’t remember seeing such group ecstasy for a long time. Suddenly it’s all over! The announcement of the return of M&A bids was greeted with the joy and relief of a chocoholic licking their first Mars Bar of the day. This was perfectly illustrated by Kraft’s cheeky bid for Cadbury  which was almost greeted with euphoria and, although Cadbury’s themselves stuck two chocolate fingers up at the Kraft bid, this is going to be a story that may well be with us for some weeks to come with others like Hershey and Nestlé no doubt increasing their interest.  For parts of the City the fact that corporate deal making was back on the agenda and seen once again as an acceptable form of capitalism, will have been greeted with huge relief as just another indicator that the investment markets are slowly but surely easing from their year of cramp. Banking – One Year After Lehmans 7- Sep -2009
The whole banking problem has not been resolved. Between now and the end of the year there are going to be yet more failures, which may come through either as higher profile headlines via failure or nationalisation, or more likely with polite and quieter mergers behind the scenes. The Sorcerer’s Apprentice 1- Sep -2009
The end of the holidays and the beginning of September is really the start of a new investing year. The past few weeks have seen an enthusiastic equity rally, but is really based upon some pretty thin trading volumes. From Recession to Recovery (that’s the hard part!) - Bonus Twaddle and “Doh!” x 3 24- Aug -2009
Good news – the world is coming out of recession.  Bad news – it’s going into a period of very likely tepid, anaemic or insipid recovery. No doubt the Thesaurus is going to be well thumbed by the time we get through the next quarter to describe the quality and standard of the recovery, but the message is likely to be a familiar theme. Date Dilemmas 17- Aug -2009
You’re on a first date that starts off in a swanky West End bar. The conversation is a tad on the dry side. You are glad that you made the effort to go but now are in a quandary. Do you a) cut the evening short and leave before you are dragged onto more awkward silences over dinner or b) keep the hope and say to yourself that the only way is up? A New Dawn 10- Aug -2009
I hope Justin has picked up some good Summer reading for his holiday, for if he had turned to the financial press as normal he would have found the usual swinging pendulum of news. Debt on the back of a fag packet 3- Aug -2009
£950 billion is quite an eye watering sum of money – and of course it also happens to be the latest figure of our UK government debt for this year. In Goldman’s Eyes..... 27- Jul -2009
What a difference a week can make. Last quarter the glass was cracked; last week it was half empty and yet seven days later it appears half full! Certain analysts have been getting quite excited with one of Goldman’s analysts (presumably still celebrating his bonus) stating that the S&P500 would enjoy its “best second half rally since 1982”. In a Time Warp? 20- Jul -2009
So when did either Goldman Sachs or JP Morgan ever care about public relations? I suppose if you are back behind your iron gates of Mordor it would never even cross your mind. Back on the Savannah 13- Jul -2009
The process of life and death on the Savannah is the normal role of nature in the wild: corporate economic birth and death in the business world is almost identical – unless or until politicians interfere with it. A Deluded Britain 6- Jul -2009
Can we stop trying to fool ourselves please. We in the UK, are not going to go back to our complacent world of heady consumerism and conspicuous consumption any time soon. Almost every week there are more reports of ‘green shoots’ as well as confidence indicators starting to perk up again. A Dangerous Policy 29- Jun -2009
Yes we all know that interest rates have never been this low in the UK since men wore tights and long floppy wigs (actually I may have forgotten the 1970’s), but the truth is that interest rates as far as the real world is concerned, have already started to rise quite significantly. Unfortunately cash savers need not pay attention here as, so far, there has been no sign of any respite for the truly abysmal rates of interest income on cash deposits. Rough seas ahead? 22- Jun -2009
Justin is away this week - not unwell, he has gone yachting - so he has asked me to step in to cover his weekly column.  Justin is not being held hostage by Somali pirates off the Horn of Africa, but on a corporate event somewhere in the English Channel, no doubt singing for his supper and entertaining a captive audience with his red braces and large stock of anecdotes. Market Muggers and Bullies 16- Jun -2009
Bullying is to be abhorred on every occasion. So whether it is in the playground or in the world of business, the same attitudes must apply. Smaller companies are forever at the mercy of their stronger and larger counterparts – but such is the world of capitalism. When Less is More 9- Jun -2009
There seems to have been a growing theme based around a single word of late – “less”. A bit less of just about everything would seem to be acceptable for most of us – and for most things. Feral and Ferrous 1- Jun -2009
That’s just what the world needs right now – a feral state with a tin pot dictator who has an inferiority complex (and probably a personal security one as well) - chucking missiles around and setting off nuclear bombs. Fancy a new Currency? 26- May -2009
Strange as it may seem, new currencies are not necessarily an infrequent event. Some are created out of necessity, others from financial innovations. However, whether new or old, none have been found to be impervious to the myriad financial disasters and panics, although there are two I can think of that have had a greater permanence than most. Finding the Phoenix from the ashes 18- May -2009
It is far more fashionable to focus on the failures and of course not very British to actually celebrate any success. This is in fact made worse when, in times of economic difficulty, it almost appears impolite to admit to that your business or enterprise might actually be doing quite well. No, we are all supposed to wear sack cloth and ashes and mutter in a Scottish accent under our breath like Private Fraser from Dad’s Army - “we’re doomed”. And then at last the parachute opened! 11- May -2009
In sterile City offices, country downgrades are achieved by tapping into a keyboard; in the real world they can result in the chucking of a brick. It is very easy to blandly talk about downgrading in the ratings of national economies without appreciating the implications for, not just those nations, but their populations as well. Downgrading is in fact far from just being a technicality but something which can directly impact on the cost of funding for that nation. Such extra costs will mean fewer funds available for investment and expenditure, thus often resulting in cut backs and a reduction in facilities - and consequently employment. Tensions rise as economies weaken. To Trade or Not to Trade? - Test 5- May -2009
As the recession takes hold, I am unashamed to say that I am going to ‘staycation’ in England this Summer and have already spent an increasing number of nights within the four walls of the shoebox that is my flat. On many evenings, I have sat in front of the idiot box; one show (besides Justin’s numerous television appearances of course!) has particularly caught my attention. I have enjoyed watching Conor Woodman’s fortunes and misfortunes (of which there have been many) in ‘Around the World in 80 Trades’ on Channel 4. For those of you who have not had the pleasure, the show follows an ex-City trader who threw it all in to travel and trade his way, solo, across the planet, buying local products in one country and selling them at a profit in another. He fails miserably when trying to buy Camels in the Sudan. His best trade appeared to be buying inflatable surfing boards in China and selling them in Mexico but I wondered whether he’d heard of taking coals to Newcastle when he intended to sell chilli sauce in India. Bizarrely, it proved successful! The New Austerity  - Welcome to the Fourth World 27- Apr -2009
So much has already been written about the detail of the UK Budget that I am not going to repeat the excellent work of others. I am sure you have had far too much to read already. However perhaps there were some key measurements which I felt were especially graphic in describing the parlous situation of the British economy. It was Gillian Tett in last week’s FT that highlighted that the risk measurement of UK government gilts was now worse than Cadbury PLC. To explain, the cost of insuring a 5 year Gilt against default was “95 points” (0.95%) – which in English means that it costs £95,000 to insure £10 million worth of Gilts. By comparison Cadbury’s debt would only cost £50,000 to insure – which is a bit odd as they only produce chocolate money – still, maybe its worth more than I thought? Some Proper(ty) Perspective 6- Apr -2009
To some it is just a place to live, to others a useful investment for the future, but for the British our house has not been our castle (that was just a Norman fetish), but rather our national fixation. Over the years we have all had to suffer those dinner party bores trumpeting their astuteness at being able to buy at the right time in the right place and how much they have made as a result. This of course became even more tedious in the nineties as their lectures lengthened to include their overseas property speculations in places like Dubai and latterly their range of buy to let investments which they have just bought off plan. Property bores, though, do move in regular waves as the price of real estate oscillates from ludicrous value to unutterable stupidity, and with it they accumulate little or no collective memory of the last downswing or property price crash. “I predict a riot” (Thank you Kaiser Chiefs) 30- Mar -2009
No doubt there has been some concentrated brick polishing over the past few days. The more intelligent will be preparing their debating brickbats to argue the merits or otherwise of the G20 meeting. Those who may be somewhat more intellectually challenged will no doubt be reverting to the physical brick over the metaphorical. I am sure that the protestors will vary from the well meaning demonstrators through to the usual suspects of radical anarchists. Actually though, for once I think that a large proportion of the population would like to have their own brick, albeit a rubber one, to lob at a bank – or come to that any representation of capitalism. Such anger is quite understandable – such behaviour is totally unacceptable. “Daddy, the country just went bust.” 23- Mar -2009
In these nervous times government bonds are often held out as the last bastion of security and safety. Even if all the companies go bust, at least we can still rely on the central government to bail us out. Well actually, maybe not! History shows that such events were not uncommon and both France and Spain seemed to make it quite a habit in the 17th and 18th centuries as they financed reckless foreign adventures and imperial pomposity. Monte Carlo, Moseley and Markets 13- Mar -2009
The good news is that the world has lots of rallies – the bad news is that most of them usually end in disappointment. I lost interest in the old Monte Carlo rally shortly after Paddy Hopkirk in his Minis stopped winning it. Oswald Moseley’s rallies luckily never gained much traction and, sadly, most stock market rallies seem to get slapped down after a wave of euphoria. No Knee-Jerk Regulation 6- Mar -2009
Such is the power of a baying mob. Populist fervour, albeit fanned by a media furore, called for the head of Fred Goodwin. This, as much as anything, was a reflection of the general frustration and anger of the population at their having to both pay for others’ mistakes and then to see their leaders getting away with it and, just to rub salt into the wound as well, even being rewarded for it. With this crowd there was going to be no call for “Barabbas” to let him go, but rather a mass demand for some kind of retribution. Whilst emotionally satisfying in the short term, such stories do little to actually solve the current issues, although I do admit that they are useful, and I would even say essential, to have such a totem to blame and to heap our indignation upon. The reality is that despite such media lynching, nothing of note is going to come out of it which will affect the economic malaise. Pride before a fall 27- Feb -2009
Pride before a fall – when will we ever learn? Whether it has been puffed up complacent investment bankers who assumed they could stroll across the Sea of Galilee, property developers feeding both the greedy and the gullible, Icelandic politicians who claimed to have found a new economic paradigm, or even a desert mirage of palaces built on sand, eventually the cold light of dawn reveals a dreary pall of chilled reality. All we have to do is to make sure we don’t fall for the next one – and please be assured, there will be more and they will be even more attractive and enticingly plausible. How to run a Bank? 23- Feb -2009
With all the creaking of a medieval ox cart, our banking system continues to slowly bump and grind its way along the road to recession. Dragged along by a bunch of tired old dray horses seemingly fit for nothing other than to the knacker’s yard, they hardly seem to have the necessary energy to revive our economy. Although spruced up with dynamic branding to look like thoroughbreds (one advertising itself as a lean high speed train, another sponsoring a Formula 1 team, and one of course is supposed to be a shining black horse in any case), these tired beasts seem unable, or maybe are unwilling to react to any of the exhortations of the driver. So our banks lumber on. Figures show how little of the intended sums of financing seem to be filtering through to the economy, and thus every day that goes by they cause further pain and frustration in the financial structure of the country. Last week the FT reported just a trickle coming from the banks faucet operating under the government’s loan guarantee scheme – out of a total £1bn facility, just £12m would seem has actually been lent out so far. The Queen, Darwin, Banks and the Fear of God 17- Feb -2009
When George Gilbert Williams, the president of Chemical Bank, a large US bank, was asked how he came by his success in the bank crisis of 1857 he said it was the “Fear of God”. It seems the “Fear of God” has deserted many of our banks, or perhaps I should say, the fear of bankruptcy, in these more secular times. Why should our banks fear any God when we the taxpayers are willing to step up and bail them out every few years, because they are “too big to fail”. Wait a minute – maybe all is not what it seems 9- Feb -2009
As even our leaders seem to be somewhat bemused as to whether we are actually in a recession or depression, it is therefore quite understandable that most of the public are at least confused if not actually extremely nervous about what is going on. Thanks Gordon for that! The Protection Racket – “Patriotism - the last refuge of a scoundrel” 2- Feb -2009
It is so easy just to wave the national flag, whoop as the national anthem is played and pretend you are doing so for the good of the nation.  “Hard Pounding, gentlemen: but we shall see who can pound the longest”. Wellington at Waterloo, 1815. 26- Jan -2009
There has been much conjecture on the future of the Euro, particularly as it has just celebrated its 10th anniversary. Life below Zero 12- Jan -2009
The actual importance of interest rates at these levels frankly has all the relevance of two follically challenged men bickering over a comb. Nationalisation at Christmas 22- Dec -2008
Given the desperate state of the UK economy, the Government has decided to introduce some exceptional measures and to extend its nationalisation plans. After hating the 8 – watch out for the malign 9 8- Dec -2008
Beware of consensus – it is often an excuse for complacency. However, when looking at 2009 there seems to be a growing consensus that it’s going to be a year of recession – you may have “hated the 8” but now prepare for the “malign 9”.  Some Chipped China? 1- Dec -2008
We are by now quite used to those more descriptive Chinese expressions and terminology – they often seem to come with references to wildlife and nature as well as often with a more Confucian style.  Spend Spend Spend – Please! 21- Nov -2008
And so the cry goes up – “tax cuts – give them the money and they will spend our way out of this recession”. Oh the power of popular mantra. Blowing the Tanks 14- Nov -2008
It feels a bit like the scene in that iconic German film “Das Boot” when the submarine commander orders all the tanks to be blown in a vain effort to try and stop the damaged U-boat from sinking. “If you go down to the Woods (Bretton) today you are sure of a big surprise.” 12- Nov -2008
This week the meeting of the “G20” in Washington on the 15th has the opportunity to be an extremely important event. Although some have tagged it as the opportunity to create a new “Bretton Woods” international agreement for a new financial world order, the reality is going to be considerably less but nonetheless the meeting is still going to be vital. Who Needs Gunpowder? 31- Oct -2008
In 1605 Guy Fawkes wanted to destroy most of the English establishment and its parliament along with its new Scottish King, James VI, with some good old fashioned gunpowder. Halloween Masks 27- Oct -2008
It’s been getting darker – not just because of the UK changes over to Winter timing - but rather because last week was when those in power finally admitted to the inevitable; that we are in for a recession, and probably quite a prolonged one at that.  “Back in the USSA” 20- Oct -2008
The land of the free and the stalwart of the capitalist system, America stands as the bulwark against socialism and as the advocate of the free economy. Well, that is the usual mantra but of course not everything is quite as it seems.  No need to hunt for Red October or Blowing the Dam (and a grossly extended metaphor) 14- Oct -2008
So will it work? The truthful answer is that it has to. There is no “plan B”. The rescue package was certainly bold and the internationally co-ordinated interest rate cut a welcome surprise, but will it be enough to start clearing the log jam? The End of the Beginning? 6- Oct -2008
Watching the fortresses of capitalism crumbling before our eyes has been an astonishing nay frightening, act to behold. The End of an Error 29- Sep -2008
A recently spotted American bumper sticker read as follows: “20th January 2009 – The End of an Error”. A Whiff of Cordite 22- Sep -2008
Forgive me this week for a bit of personal commentary – but the events and feelings of the past few days I think should be recorded for more proper recollection once the dust of this destruction has had time to settle. Sheer capitalism reveals a Bear’s tender spot 15- Sep -2008
In the good old days Russia would not have had this problem. If you had trouble with a tiresome neighbour or a stroppy ally, you could always go in and park your tanks on their lawn, and frankly there was little anyone could do apart from bleat and protest for a while. Oriental Discounts 8- Sep -2008
“Its growth Jim, but not as we know it” would be the Trekkie’s description of what has been happening in Asia. Asian stock markets, excluding Japan, have for the most part been the darlings of the equity investment world over the past few years. Indebted UK 1- Sep -2008
If there is one area where we have managed to beat our American cousins in a league table it would appear to be with our accumulation of debt – unsecured personal debt.  The Fine Discipline of Chess 26- Aug -2008
Well that serves me right! Take a couple of weeks holiday and look what happens – oil pulls back 8.2%, the $ rises and the £ falls back 4.4% against it, and then to cap it all the Bear starts beating up the Georgians. In just a fortnight the world seems to have taken on a different hue. Going for Gold 18- Aug -2008
Four years, some twenty billion pounds, several ‘Free Tibet’ protestors, and a visually modified opening ceremony later, the games finally got underway at the Beijing Olympics 2008. The Seven Wonders of the Doha Trade Round 11- Aug -2008
Justin is away in the Green Mountains of Vermont kindly adding to the pockets of the American tourism industry and sampling maple candy, leaving me to compose something sensible to say about the Doha Trade round.  Summer Storms and a Summer Sojourn 4- Aug -2008
Unfortunately the very mention of global trade talks normally results in a glazed expression appearing across people’s faces. Some proper perspective please – not a Bear market – better a Care market 1- Aug -2008
In the self centred and self obsessed world of investment, it can often be the case that we get our priorities seriously out of kilter. Emerging and Submerging 21- Jul -2008
From 1996 to 2000, with the honourable exception of 1999, the asset class of Emerging Market Equities was one of the worst performers, competing only with Gold, Commodities and Japanese equities for the title of ‘Dog of the Year’. In the long term...? 14- Jul -2008
Shares give you one of the best returns in the long term – well that’s what we are all told. After all if you had invested in March 1998 in the FTSE 100 at 5442, you would after ten years of equity growth, have reached the towering level of – oh – 5442!  Survival of the Leanest 7- Jul -2008
Last week may not have been the final capitulation, but it certainly sent a shudder through many, normally quite stoic, investors. Trader or speculator? 30- Jun -2008
I was trying to concentrate on giving a presentation on global markets last week whilst staring out over the stunning St Aubyn’s Bay in Jersey, and I found myself having to answer a similar question several times – on the lines of “are speculators ruining our markets?” Ding Dong – not so merrily 30- Jun -2008
It was with some concern that I sat and listened late last year to an investment adviser extolling the great benefits of some of the more exotic emerging markets. Feeling Queasy 16- Jun -2008
I have an uneasy feeling at the moment. With a growing list of financial fears including the Badly & Bungled (Bradford & Bingley) fiasco, a close run thing with the RBS rights issue and the HBOS call in trouble and very nearly underwater, confidence is wearing thin. Joining the dots of history 9- Jun -2008
Searching for a specific piece of economic data can be likened to going on a journey. You never know where you might end up. The Gift of Giving 2- Jun -2008
The British Retail Consortium (BRC) reported this month that retail sales fell for the second month in a row. Like for like sales fell 1.5%, apparently hitting depths of gloom not seen since 2005! As Safe as Houses? 27- May -2008
A bar of Aero has been my usual analogy for the UK residential housing market. This was on the basis that there isn’t one single market but lots of different ones and not one bubble but all sorts of bubbles of different sizes. Currency Conundrums 20- May -2008
So the Dollar is doomed? Despite the recent rally, if you were to believe by far and away the majority of commentaries one could easily assume that the great greenback is doomed to yet further falls. It’s that wretched rhyme again 13- May -2008
So – should we “sell in May and go away, and not come back until St Leger Day”? Well it would be certainly tempting when you look at some of the issues surrounding us. He huffed and he puffed and he sent a repossession order 6- May -2008
As a first time home-owner, I am nothing if not tired of picking up my daily newspaper only to be repeatedly bombarded with truly terrifying headlines concerning house prices. Maybe not just a passing problem? Inflation 28- Apr -2008
Damn statistics and damn politicians don’t blend well together. After highlighting some of the obfuscation around the unemployment numbers recently, it makes sense to move onto another vexed question – what exactly is the rate of our inflation?   Too Good To Be True? 23- Apr -2008
“Jobs figures bring welcome relief” was the leading headline – but in my view not so much relief as astonishment. Please Sir, Can I have some more? 14- Apr -2008
What do Chinese pork, Indian rice, Australian wheat and U.S. corn have in common? Unfortunately right now, a great deal! Is this the world’s biggest hedge fund? 7- Apr -2008
What do you call a hedge fund with a government? Probably Iceland. For a country with the population approximately the same as that of Scunthorpe, this little nation has made a remarkable amount of noise over recent years. Breaking down some barriers 1- Apr -2008
If volatile markets do one thing, at least they make people think more about what is happening to their money – even if it is just on the basis of fear. Lies, Damned Lies, and Statistics 26- Mar -2008
If Mark Twain were alive today uttering these now famous words, I wonder just how amused he would be with how we have become subservient to a plethora of numbers. Going to “L” in a hand cart 17- Mar -2008
“Well what shape is it?” has been one of the most recent questions I have been faced with. Somewhere over Sumatra 10- Mar -2008
Singapore I regard as my second home – tidier, warmer and generally better organised than West London.  Sunshine and Roses 3- Mar -2008
Here at the headquarters of Seven Investment Management, we in the investment management team are renowned for our rather pessimistic economic views and are affectionately called the ‘doom and gloom corner’.  The Refined Art of Rock Knocking 25- Feb -2008
Oh what a chorus of half baked ill informed wingers. Since the decision to “nationalise” the Rock last Sunday, we seem to have suffered the rants and ravings of anybody with a view about the apparent impending demise of this institution. There will be blood 18- Feb -2008
What an apt title – this recently released film about an early rapacious American oil magnate has provided a most pertinent title for some comments this week.  Xīn Nián Hǎo! – Happy Rat 11- Feb -2008
For my Chinese cousins 8 is a very lucky number and thus this year should be one of good joss, but so far the outlook would appear far from positive – in fact more like a 4. Feeling a little queasy? Pass the Stugeron 4- Feb -2008
What a difference a week can make. A stolen week away sailing meant that I could only listen to the unfolding financial turmoil of weakening economies, bank fraud and falling markets via the crackly broadcasts of the BBC World Service. FCUK - French Correction UK! 28- Jan -2008
Justin Urquhart Stewart in his previous columns has consistently pointed out the poor handling of the Northern Rock crisis. Nothing demonstrates this better than the events of this week in which another banking crisis was narrowly averted in France but handled in a slick and efficient manner.  Dissolved in the rain! 21- Jan -2008
From the resolute equity markets of only a year ago, all the confidence and enthusiasm seems to have been totally dissolved. The next “dead cert” 14- Jan -2008
Investment markets thrive on fashion fads and betting on the next “sure fire” investment winners. Beware of Eastern Promise 7- Jan -2008
I am not sure when I can last remember such a headline before - but the bold strap line of “Singapore suffers economic growth slowdown” is not one to be seen very often. A Gift of Financial Myrrh or Mire? 24- Dec -2007
The past few weeks have seen some very dramatic if not unprecedented action by the main central banks around the globe.  The Search for Silver Linings 18- Dec -2007
reverberating sounds of creaking property values, many investors have felt the fear of falling investment values. It’s that word again – Stagflation 10- Dec -2007
For those of a certain age, this is a word that induces a depressing recall of a failing British economy lampooned as the sick man of Europe. Stagflation is the evil concoction of a stagnating economy blighted by persistent inflation – or in other words rising prices in a weakening economy. Angel of the North? 3- Dec -2007
What a farrago. If you wrote it as fiction no-one would believe you. Between my writing and your kindly reading these comments, it is just possible that the whole issue has been resolved, but somehow I doubt it.  When In A Maelstrom 26- Nov -2007
It is difficult to achieve any form of perspective when sitting in the midst of a maelstrom; it is thus all the more important to check the charts to see through the day to day short term buffeting of a financial storm.   China Price or What Price China? 21- Nov -2007
China’s greatest export for over a decade was deflation – anything we could make, they could make cheaper – and no doubt still can.   Powerless 6- Nov -2007
Powerless in the face of the water companies, powerless in the face of the cable companies and in fact shortly - just powerless altogether.   Three Strikes and You’re Out! 29- Oct -2007
It was supposed to be a celebration of talent across the sporting world. England was supposed to be triumphant in football, be mighty and victorious in rugby, and the young Hamilton was mere points away from the coveted world championship.   A season of financial as well as meteorological storms 22- Oct -2007
Back in October 1987 the storm that hit South East England acted as the perfect analogous prologue for what was about to hit the stock markets the following trading day. More money – less value 15- Oct -2007
Good news - we are earning more: Bad news - we’ve got less to spend. I had better explain.   Safe As Houses 8- Oct -2007
Probably the best decision they never made. I am referring, of course, to Barclays and their failed bid for ABNAmro.   Dancing with Danger 1- Oct -2007
One may disagree over the precise value and importance of the financial services sector to the UK economy, but I think even the most awkward of political nihilists would agree that it was at the very least both substantial and significant.   Always look on the bright side of life 24- Sep -2007
The turmoil induced by the ongoing sub-prime saga, its consequential credit crunch and Central Bank reactions have certainly kept markets and commentators very busy this week. More fun at Doncaster? 17- Sep -2007
It’s that time of year again for the second half of that old adage “Sell in May and go away, and don’t return until St Leger Day”.   The 5th Labour – The Augean Stables 11- Sep -2007
Whilst the financial upheavals continue, perhaps it is a suitable time to look at the background of the greater global economic position. Although some are calling profound doom and gloom and forming queues for the windowsill, with deep recession being predicted, it is interesting to note how long we have gone on without one. Another Great Fire 3- Sep -2007
This week there is a rather untimely anniversary. It is that of the great conflagration of London back in 1666.   Suffering Storm Damage 29- Aug -2007
As the unfortunate population of Jamaica and Belize will attest, meteorological storms cause far more immediate physical damage than financial ones. However, as we will identify over the next few weeks, financial storms do also cause considerable losses but their effect and impact may not be so obvious. Pride before the Fall 20- Aug -2007
Only a few weeks ago, and quite justifiably, some of the attitudes and behaviour of certain investment participants could have been described as arrogant – they were hugely successful as they headed off for their Summer holidays, basking in the knowledge that they had made all the right investment decisions.   A New Headmaster – You Had Better Behave Now 13- Aug -2007
The US banking and financial system has a new Headmaster. And just like any new leader, the new head wants to change the way things are run.   The ‘L’ Word 6- Aug -2007
Some of you may think that I am talking about the four letter ‘L’ word – Love.   Rain Rain Go Away 30- Jul -2007
It wasn’t just the gloom of dark rain clouds hovering ominously overhead that the City had to contend with this week. State of Denial - Put Off Yet? 23- Jul -2007
On both sides of the pond it appears that there is an increasing division of views between the enthusiastic bulls pointing to certain encouraging corporate Q2 results and those bears who stare with increased nervousness at the burgeoning credit and debt market worries. Get real on real estate 16- Jul -2007
So what happens if property prices do drop? It is a question that is haunting many at the moment. “China Lite” – on a plane from Paphos 2- Jul -2007
Is it being at 35,000 feet, or is it the second Bloody Mary, but thinking on a plane allows one to take a broader view on the global economy. The Wrong Harvest 18- Jun -2007
I can recall the dark and dire warnings of the Reverend Thomas Malthus from my school days, which managed to scare us all into thinking that we were all doomed. Bond Market Massacre 15- Jun -2007
Much blood has been shed in the bond markets over the past fortnight. As safe as....houses? 11- Jun -2007
“Of course, it is different this time.” Well it always is every time someone tries to explain away a difficult situation. Thus when you talk about residential housing, people get very sensitive about it and some newspapers even make a living out of it, that is when they haven’t got another ridiculous story about Lady Di to go on about. Food Glorious Food 4- Jun -2007
Whilst Justin is away on business speaking to investors in the sunnier climbs of Luxembourg, he has once again bravely asked me to provide a view on what’s been happening in the financial world this week for his regular weekly column. Bears behaving badly 29- May -2007
If you are worried about a bear market, I would far rather you worried about a badly behaving bear. Russia’s new found confidence is showing some unpleasant traits. Hacienda Horrors 30- Apr -2007
Last week the pain in Spain had nothing to do with the rain. Dollar Doom-mongers 23- Apr -2007
These are days when many comments on the markets come under the heading of John Cleese’s “the stunningly obvious”. Brown Market Housing 23- Apr -2007
If the UK property market is to founder then in all likelihood it is going to be around the somewhat obese “buy to let” market. The calm after the storm? 16- Apr -2007
After a week of cooing confidence it seems that the financial fears of last month have been soothed away in the Spring sunshine – what nonsense! If you can’t see the wood for the trees – you might be in a hedge 10- Apr -2007
In a recent consultation paper the FSA appears to be opening the way for hedge funds, or more specifically “fund of hedge funds”, to become available directly to the private investor. The Four “Uns” 2- Apr -2007
Last week we heard a further iteration of Mr Benanke’s thoughts on the US economy, and he has learnt quickly, after a few initial slips, to select his words very carefully. Planner or Pedant? 26- Mar -2007
Although US interest rates remained on hold last week it seems that the markets now appear to be led by linguistic pedants leaping on the slightest change in intimation of the phrases used by the Fed in their statements. Butterfly effect! 19- Mar -2007
Justin Urquhart Stewart – writer of the self titled ‘Justin’s Commentary’ column - is off speaking to investors in the Far East and has bravely left this week’s column to be written by his trusted understudy. So here goes….. A Casino! 12- Mar -2007
The tremors of the past fortnight may have eased somewhat but I don’t think we should be fooled into thinking that any of the underlying questions that led to this point have now been resolved. The year of the Pig or a Pig of a year? 6- Mar -2007
The phrase I have previously used was that “complacency was the smile of fools” – and last week that complacency was finally shattered as a series of events unintentionally conspired to shatter the alabaster smoothness of the global investment markets. It’s growth Jim – but not as we know it 26- Feb -2007
There was some apparently positive news last week about UK companies. Something rather strange has been happening – they have actually been increasing their capital spending. It's different for the Japanese 20- Feb -2007
Well things have certainly been changing in the world’s second largest national economy, as last week’s Japanese 4th Quarter GDP figures underlined. When you reach the top – Stop! And at least have a look around 12- Feb -2007
With the Merger and Acquisition frenzy still running at an outrageous pace it may be a suitable moment just to step back and consider what really has been happening. A Corporate Soap – Ta Ta to the Cha Cha 5- Feb -2007
It’s not often you get some “soap opera”- like antics in financial services but last week’s finale to the Corus takeover had some style to it. From Doyen Dog 30- Jan -2007
Just like being a British sporting star, investment markets can radically change from hero to horror on the spin of a coin. When Playing Monopoly 22- Jan -2007
On the Monopoly board one of the dullest properties to buy was always the utilities. They didn’t cost much but they gave a pretty rotten return. How strangely quaint that seems now. A Bear with a Sore Head 15- Jan -2007
If you found a bunch of vandals had been increasingly interfering with your local gas taps and power supplies, then at least a round of ASBO’s would probably be in order. Shape Shifting 8- Jan -2007
The global investment markets are changing shape. Christmas Treasury Management 21- Dec -2006
As the global economy heads for a slowdown, there has been a clamour for investments offering an increasingly sustainable and regular cash flow. The Reality of a US Santa Rally? 18- Dec -2006
Some have been excited by the rapidity of the fall in the US $ over the past few months; others will be more fearful. Green - or just effective camouflage? 11- Dec -2006
Well it might have been headlined as “green” and yes, there were some environmental bones lobbed in, but there were some particular areas of contradiction as well as some worrying concerns for the running of the economy further out in Gordon Brown’s pre-Budget speech. Changing gear or gearing change? 28- Nov -2006
Another week and another set of takeovers, except that this time most barely got a mention or even received a raised eyebrow. Bubbling Along? 20- Nov -2006
Three and half years of growth in the FTSE 100 should neither be ignored, nor sniffed at. China chirps while Merkel’s mired 13- Nov -2006
Well it is not a bad cash pile by anyone’s measure. The announcement from The People’s Republic of China that their foreign currency reserves have now exceeded $1,000 billion is certainly a considerable milestone. A change of air? 6- Nov -2006
Now that the festive arsenals of gunpowder have been unleashed, the smell of damp and burnt cordite still fills the air. Changing Trains and Planes 30- Oct -2006
If proof were needed of the power of an emerging economic giant, then last week’s news of further Chinese plane and train orders should come as no surprise. Time for a bigger bang? 23- Oct -2006
As Sergeant Pepper’s band famously sang – “It was 20 years ago today…” and on the 26th October 1986 we did have a very significant change in the operation of the City – the Big Bang, which heralded in some of the most crucial changes in the operation of the stock market for generations. Another four letter word – Risk 16- Oct -2006
If there were no risk there would be no market – it may sound somewhat trite but probably true. Pointing with an Index 9- Oct -2006
All is not necessarily what it seems. Well certainly not when it comes to reading certain stock market indices. And so it continues.... 2- Oct -2006
I must apologise for coming back to some regular subjects but like any good soap opera, the story lines come and go but rarely ever completely end. Doom and Gloom? 28- Sep -2006
It may not look much like Summer, as rain sweeps the country, but it feels like it in markets this week. Hedge Clippings 25- Sep -2006
The hedge fund industry sometimes appears like an ocean of icebergs, with only their tips appearing above the surface with the rest of their vast bulk lurking invisibly beneath the surface. Long Shadows 18- Sep -2006
The events of September 11th will cast a long shadow, not just with the pain and the grief on such a diabolical act, but also in the change of attitude as the complacency of the Western powers was shattered as surely as the finest plate glass mirrors. …..until St Leger Day 12- Sep -2006
It is worthy of the best Brian Rix Whitehall farce and would be hilarious but for the fact that it seems to be true. The petulance of politicians never ceases to amaze, especially when their own pride and career are at stake. Hi ho, hi ho... 4- Sep -2006
Satchels packed, sandwiches made and scarves wrapped up – the holidays are nearly over and the investment managers are trying (subject to South West Trains’ drivers) to get back to work. A Basket Case 21- Aug -2006
A bit of a basket case is a good description of our inflation figures. Gordon Brown’s chosen measure for inflation is the Consumer Price Index (CPI) which, as we saw last week, slipped back to 2.4% (year on year) from 2.5% in June. Return of the Inflatable Deer 14- Aug -2006
Central banks are not there to give stock market traders a free ride and thus last week’s decision by the Fed to “pause” its rate raising programme did little to reassure investors.   An increasing amount of interest 7- Aug -2006
Well it may have been just a quarter of a percentage point but nonetheless the change made by the Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee marks a significant step after twelve months holding steady - and remember their last decision was downwards. Chinese Exchequers 31- Jul -2006
Following on from my mutterings from Hong Kong last week, it has been interesting to watch the indications of possible action from the Chinese authorities about the speeding growth of their burgeoning economy. A View from the Star Ferry 24- Jul -2006
How and where can you start to evaluate the dreadful events of the past few days? The true answer is that in reality we won’t fully be able to put these difficult days into context until the smoke finally clears from all the areas affected. For whom the bell tolls, it tolls for….. 17- Jul -2006
Last week a bell tolled a deep and sombre note as The Bank of England issued a clear warning to us all. Rockets and Rates – up and down! 10- Jul -2006
I am sure that President Bush might have been delighted to hear of the celebratory rockets fired for the 4th of July – until he heard that they were from the North Koreans – still, nice of them to join in. Rising – rates, confidence and risks 3- Jul -2006
If investment markets are lacking bullish backbone, the same cannot be said for the changing attitudes of business people in Germany. Trading Places 26- Jun -2006
The continuing uncertainty and volatility generally seems to have turned the markets into a financial episode of ‘Grumpy Old Men’, with every negative issue greeted with a whinge and complaint and anything positive just reduced to a mere shrug of the shoulders. Betting on hedges or hedging some bets? 19- Jun -2006
So what is it about the infrastructure of the United Kingdom that makes it so attractive to the rest of the world? Is it our renowned operational efficiency or maybe the outlook for strength and growth of the UK economy? Naivety or Innocence? 12- Jun -2006
As the Summer market squall continues, so the level of investor confidence will erode. It is always difficult to see beyond such a turbulent time when markets seem to be in such turmoil. New Hand at the Helm? 5- Jun -2006
In times of turbulence, people like to hear the calming voice of authority, if only to provide some comfort that there is someone who actually seems to understand just what might be going on. Divine Inspiration or Conspiracy Theory? 29- May -2006
As soon as anyone declares a drought, you can guarantee that it’s going to rain – and when it rains, it pours, as we have certainly found out in London over the past few days. On the slopes of Mount Merapi 22- May -2006
If you had been an Indonesian farmer on the slopes of Mount Merapi in Java, you would have been all too aware of the build up of tension around this volcano. From local tremors and minor earthquakes through to spewing smoke and pumice, the situation has been getting progressively more dangerous with now lava flowing out from its cracks and crevices. Defying Gravity? 15- May -2006
If ever there were indicators or tell-tale signs that things might be going too far with commodity prices it was usually either people enthusiastically stating that the huge Canadian oil and tar sand deposits were now financially viable, or that the Welsh mining pits might now be reopened. Another Melting Pot 8- May -2006
Watching markets grow and develop is fascinating - but seeing them grow in front of your eyes has to be astonishing. I was in Dubai for a fleeting visit last week and I noticed that various building developments visibly grew in just the few hours I was there. Hydro Carbon Diplomacy 2- May -2006
The change last week in the Chinese one year benchmark lending rate from 5.58% to 5.85%, shouldn’t have come as any surprise as it had already been well flagged in advance. April Spring Fever 24- Apr -2006
Well you can’t deny the enthusiasm. Just take a look at some of the issues - the world economy was described by the IMF as a going through a ‘purple patch’ - commodities have been supported by the continuing use of the phrase of a ‘super cycle’ - and even the FTSE 100 joined in by trying to reach out and touch the 6100 level. A Commotion in Commodities 18- Apr -2006
For those of a certain age, the world of commodities used to bear more resemblance to the 1980’s Eddie Murphy film “Trading Places”, with a jolly tale of the manipulation of orange juice commodity prices. So How Was It for You? The 1st Quarter 10- Apr -2006
So the daffodils are out, the clocks have gone forward, the ISAs are done and the tax year finishing – it must be the quarter end - and thus a suitable time to have a look back at what happened to the various asset classes over the last three months. Are you a dedicated follower of fashion? 3- Apr -2006
The height of fashion for the past couple of years has, without any doubt, been the glittering display of the private equity market – a veritable peacock in your portfolio. At Least Two Areas of Concern 27- Mar -2006
No I am not going to talk about the Budget – apart from, that is, mentioning two issues that I think may well have an impact on both investors and their advisors. “Selling England by the Pound” 20- Mar -2006
There has been a general attitude that selling off the London Stock Exchange is just one of those things – a shrug of the shoulders and a mutter about free and open capitalism and that’s it apparently. Another word from the Sage 13- Mar -2006
I am sure you will be aware of the annual pilgrimage (a sort of financial Hajj – oh dear am I allowed to write that?) that is carried out by the adoring fans of the Sage of Omaha. Further Eurogain? 6- Mar -2006
The ECB decision to raise the Euro interest rate to 2.5% may not have come as any surprise but it is a significant indication of the changes that are now becoming more apparent within the Eurozone. Changing Tides 27- Feb -2006
The tossing turbulence of the current merger and acquisition activity has certainly created a storm of excitement in the equity markets. Time to stop the Euro-moan? 20- Feb -2006
Ah the joy of hyperbole! Barely a week goes by without a fearsome headline from a tabloid newspaper railing against the continental Europeans. The lure of Spanish eyes 13- Feb -2006
The news last week that BAA might receive a bid certainly came as a surprise to the market, as illustrated by its 20% rise in the share price – surely, we all thought, it has been BAA that has been the aquisitor and would be one of the last companies of the FTSE 100 that might be a potential target for a predator. A Whiff of Hypocrisy 6- Feb -2006
The atmosphere of the past week, and quite likely for this one to come, has hardly been conducive to an attitude of quiet confidence in either the political or economic world. Happy New Year (of the Dog) - Consistency for private investors – Chinese volatility 30- Jan -2006
Politicians have never understood much about private investors. Whether it was the illusory desire for a shareholder democracy in the days of Mrs Thatcher, or the suspicious attitude of Labour MP’s many of whom seem to regard them as grasping and greedy stock market punters – both groups seem to wallow in dogma rather than reality. In a world of plenty and poverty 23- Jan -2006
The real pain and putrification of desperate poverty is something that few of us, thankfully, have to experience first hand in the UK. In a world of plenty and poverty 23- Jan -2006
The real pain and putrification of desperate poverty is something that few of us, thankfully, have to experience first hand in the UK. The joys of cycling 16- Jan -2006
You may recall that late last year, in fact on 5th December in the Chancellor’s pre-Budget speech, the seven year economic cycle was confirmed as now becoming a remarkable twelve year cycle. As we finished – so we started 9- Jan -2006
Ukraine, as far as the markets were concerned, was just too far away. Seemingly without a concern to any of the political implications of the rising gas prices, and consequently crude oil prices, this proved to be enough for the enthusiasm for the energy related stocks to continue their bullish run. Energy, Elections and the Environment 3- Jan -2006
3 E’s this year for me – Energy, Elections and the Environment. This, after all, was the year we saw record oil and gas prices – which as a producer would normally be good for us in the UK, except for the fact that we seem to be low on oil deposits and to have nearly run out of gas altogether. Another piece of family silver? 19- Dec -2005
There seems now to be almost a tacit acceptance that the London Stock Exchange is going to be bought by someone or something in the near future. No rabbits 12- Dec -2005
There were three key statistics that lodged in my brain from the Pre-Budget Speech last week – that along with a feeling of gloom that all is not so well as we prepare for 2006. “Germany Calling” 5- Dec -2005
So what else could go wrong? 2005 must go down as one of the worst for the Euro zone nations. Building up for Gordon 28- Nov -2005
So we can wait now with bated breath for the excitement that will be the Pre-Budget report from the Chancellor, set for 3.30pm on 5th December. United they stand – facing in different directions 28- Nov -2005
Well at least we can clearly see the differences now. The Chancellor and The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of The Bank of England both agree that the UK economy is growing – but just not at the same rate and in fact they both seem to have increasingly different outlooks.   Another BRIC in the Wall 14- Nov -2005
What price a conscience? Well the visit last week of the Chinese President, Hu Jintao certainly raised a very valid question for investors about their attitudes towards the balance of the opportunity for their investment rewards as against their attitudes towards socially responsible and ethical investing. A Week to remember and a Name to remember 7- Nov -2005
Merger Monday, Magic Monday or Manic Monday – whatever tabloid headline you would like to choose, last Monday was certainly an astonishing few hours. Following Greenspan 31- Oct -2005
It’s going to be a hard act to follow after 18 years. Even Paul Volker, the slayer of America’s inflation and Mr. Greenspan’s predecessor, still casts a long shadow after nearly two decades. Sagging Balloons & Duplicitous Ministers 24- Oct -2005
So there you have it – proof, if you needed it, that the UK economy has been slowing down. Go on – Work even longer! 17- Oct -2005
The term ‘ageing population’ which is often banded around as one of the great threats to our economy, is a strange description, as I think it is somewhat biologically challenging to have a population that actually gets younger. The Primary Directive 10- Oct -2005
So what will it take to blow the US economy off course? More than a couple of hurricanes, it would seem. Control, Confidence and Conmen 3- Oct -2005
Mutter from the gutter (always an interesting if not necessarily a wholly reliable source) last week came from the French Finance Minister when he claimed that the venerable Alan Greenspan had apparently admitted that the US had “lost control” of its budget “at a time when racking up deficits had been authorised without any control (from Congress)”. Where’s Prudence? 26- Sep -2005
The EU Stability & Growth Pact is not exactly a subject known to get the juices going in lively economic debate but last week Gordon Brown received a rap over the knuckles from Brussels over his disobedience regarding the deteriorating public finances in the UK. The Urge to Merge 19- Sep -2005
Is there something in the water, or is it just an unpleasant bit of contagion? Equities? Crisis what Crisis? 12- Sep -2005
Well, that was quite a Summer. When prices go Nuts 5- Sep -2005
As the full scale of the disaster of Hurricane Katrina is now becoming apparent, so the thoughts spread to consider the wider economic implications. Election Fever? 30- Aug -2005
Well there go the holidays then. Time for the City to take a deep breath and get ready for the Autumn onslaught. A view from the Orient 22- Aug -2005
A south sea sojourn in Singapore can give you a different view on the state of the world economy. Discipline? Yes please! 17- Aug -2005
So what happens next? Up, down or sideways? No, they are not all the same. 8- Aug -2005
Like a desert after rain – suddenly, in less than three years, there has been a growth and blossoming of “multi-managers”. Who Needs Rules Anyway? 25- Jul -2005
How do you ensure that you don’t break a rule? Change it. The Aftermath 11- Jul -2005
There is frankly little I could say to add to what has already been said. Mud Blood and Green Fields Beyond 4- Jul -2005
The blood and guts of carnivorous capitalism has long been a feature of both the US and UK corporate jungle. As you sow, so shall ye reap 27- Jun -2005
It may be a somewhat clichéd phrase but nonetheless it certainly seems to have many suitable applications these days. From Zero to Euro 20- Jun -2005
If in Britain we seem to have forgotten about it, in Japan they are certainly the world’s experts. The Cooing of the Doves! 13- Jun -2005
Maybe it’s the warmer weather but the doves are taking flight again in London, Frankfurt and New York. Or trying to, at least. Happy Tax Freedom Day! 6- Jun -2005
Yes, I know you may have missed it, but raise a celebratory glass anyway. Last Tuesday was the day when we stopped working for the Chancellor this year and finally started working for ourselves! What goes up…. 31- May -2005
The Asian tigers were roaring last year; this year they are likely to sound a more muted growl. The Bombardment of the Trebuchets 23- May -2005
If you can smell a slight whiff of a sulphurous odour in the air, I wouldn’t be at all surprised. “The Only Way Is Up”… Er…Or Maybe Down? 16- May -2005
The minutes of the Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) are hardly top of most people’s ‘right riveting read’ list. Limp Balloons! 9- May -2005
Sagging balloons and torn posters are all that is left. Now the real work begins. The Power of Pullovers-Trade Tribulation 3- May -2005
It is not often that pullovers seem to make the news but, as the election wears us down, just about anything can be made interesting. April Prices up – Confidence down! 25- Apr -2005
Well there may not be too many things to shout about in the German economy but at least their exports have been strong - added to most recently with the export of a new Pope. Pathetic Pensions 18- Apr -2005
Proven – why ongoing asset allocation is not just a nice to have but an essential. Dollar Dependency? 11- Apr -2005
The successful growth of many developing nations over the past few years has led to them amassing significant amounts of US dollars. 1st April 2005 Cuckoo or Chicken? 4- Apr -2005
Hark can you hear them? Is that the sound of the first cuckoo of Spring, or is it just more likely to be that old familiar sound of chickens coming home to roost?   March Madness 29- Mar -2005
March madness, it would seem, stretches further than the somewhat erratic behaviour of hares in Spring. Ah the joys of Spring! 21- Mar -2005
The Cheltenham Festival, the Boat Race, Easter – oh and yes the Budget. Well we can’t win them all. So far, so fast – so what? 14- Mar -2005
We can’t argue with a rally; “the trend is your friend”! Since 9th October 2002, when it touched a five year low, the hugely influential S&P 500 Index in the US has risen most significantly - the Index having risen by 61% over a period of 29 months. “Where are you?” 7- Mar -2005
I thought Delia put it most succinctly in her impassioned, if somewhat unstructured, speech to Norwich City supporters last week – although judging by her oratorical style there might have some slippage in the measurement of the sherry in the trifle that day. Baring up? 28- Feb -2005
I am sure you would have noticed the tenth anniversary of the Barings debacle courtesy of Mr Leeson and, of course, the question has been asked - surely it couldn’t happen again? Red sky in the morning…. 21- Feb -2005
We should be used to it by now but the world’s second largest industrialised economy (Japan) is officially back in recession - again.   Honey, I shrunk the Company! 14- Feb -2005
So the equity bull "meisters" are back. I lost count last week of the number of commentators who waxed enthusiastically about the return of the equity bull market as the FTSE 100 index popped up over 5000 for the first time since May 2002. We don’t always get what we expect 31- Jan -2005
It’s official – porridge is good for you. The End of the Affair 11- Jan -2005
Every so often you can come across a sign of the times which highlights just how much things have changed. Fact or fatuous? 30- Dec -2004
Forgive me if I take a slightly lighter view of the world this week – merely a reflection of the date. The risks of the Caravanserai 20- Dec -2004
Possibly the worst word to be invented in the past few years has been “offshoring”, as the habit of turning nouns into verbs plumbs new depths. Beware the glut 13- Dec -2004
It is almost reaching the stage when each morning you have the business news and then you have the Chinese business news; we should see this as an indicator of economic relevance for the future. How much for the Nanny State? 6- Dec -2004
Last week was supposed to be the week when we concentrated our concern on what Gordon Brown was going to say about the nanny state: instead the news appeared to be dominated about the level of state support for somebody’s nanny. Economic Mysticism 29- Nov -2004
Like something out of a Tolkien tale, this week will continue the saga of the search not for the golden ring, but the “golden rule”. Notes from a deluded soul 22- Nov -2004
Dear Reader, I must apologise for being quite so stupid. All this week we have been hearing and reading John Snow, the US Treasury Secretary, repeat his support for the Administration’s strong dollar policy. Euro drone – Wake Up! 15- Nov -2004
The recent re-election of George Bush may be remembered in times to come as a key marking point for international relations. Maybe this is the point when the US administration finally saw Europe as being both politically irrelevant and economically insipid as far as their own aims are concerned. After the fireworks (theirs and ours) 8- Nov -2004
With the balloons sagging and the banners now drooping, we can finally sigh with relief realising that at last it’s all over – both the election and the party. Blown away 1- Nov -2004
Well, it had been expected for some time but last week was the moment that the world’s leading currencies finally bent to inevitable pressure. Putt, putt, putt……putt! 25- Oct -2004
Revision time – not for exams but for economic analysts. Running out of money? 18- Oct -2004
Just as copper and some other minerals hit record highs the previous week, so we saw them go pop last week. Break Out? 11- Oct -2004
The corny tag line is “Planning to invest? Don’t – invest in planning”. Forgive me if I have used this before but to me this is one of the most important phrases when it comes to all our personal finances. Musing on a train going nowhere 4- Oct -2004
Here I am sitting on the latest 21st Century train, on a 20th Century railway, watching a 19th Century barge on an 18th Century canal – overtake me. Struggling up a Munro 27- Sep -2004
When hill walking up one of the Munros, the slope often seems to go on forever and there will come an exhausting moment as you struggle along, when the top never seems to get closer – and then you start to flag. Happy Birthday Working Lunch 20- Sep -2004
It was the tenth anniversary of BBC2’s award winning programme Working Lunch this week and, as part of their elebrations, they were looking back to their first broadcast. Ready, Steady ….. Oh! 13- Sep -2004
Labor Day is over, the St. Leger run, the FTSE provisionally reshuffled and Greenspan has spoken, so at last we can get down to the nitty gritty with the summer holidays finally over. The St Leger day finish 6- Sep -2004
You will recall the old tiresome phrase “sell in May and go away” and the second half of this rhyme is, of course, “and don’t come back until St Leger Day”. Suffering from 3Ts 31- Aug -2004
Oh dear, I had almost forgotten that we are due for an election in the UK possibly within the next twelve months. What reminded me was the start of political mutterings that are the build up to the party conferences over the next few weeks. Bowled a Googly 23- Aug -2004
What a fiasco. I am all in favour of innovations which look to try and break the complacency of comfortable investment banks but the farce that has been the Google flotation will hardly encourage further innovations. Higher & faster - lower & slower 16- Aug -2004
With the stadium cement drying rapidly, the Olympics are finally under way. For the next couple of weeks everything will be focused on all things higher and faster as the athletes and the other sporting participants strive for their “victor ludorum”. For those of us with a more sedentary outlook in the financial world, we will be hoping for the antithesis of such efforts. Eurotrashing 9- Aug -2004
There is nothing like first hand experience for giving one an insight into the workings of an economy and watching a group of French farmers trashing a supermarket fresh fruit and veg section certainly provided me with such an occasion. Who really knows? 2- Aug -2004
As Justin continues to enjoy his well earned Summer break in the south of France, his commentary for this week will remain unchanged. A city soap opera 26- Jul -2004
Well, finally, US rates have gone up. It was hardly a surprise but the question is now – how much further will they rise in this cycle and at what speed? Wringing Hands 19- Jul -2004
I have been listening this week to a trail of carping financial commentators all doing a passing impersonation of a line of wailing monks, all bemoaning the state of the markets. Just when you thought…… 12- Jul -2004
That air of complacent confidence caused by an easing oil price was easily reversed last week as the markets fretted about Russian, Nigerian and Iraqi production problems.