David Schwartz
Independent stock market historian David Schwartz is well-known to most UK investors. His widely-read Schwartz Stock Market Handbook can be found on most City trading desks and he is frequently interviewed by BBC, CNBC and Bloomberg television. He is a regular contributor to the FT and BBC Ceefax.
BEWARE OF THE US PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION CYCLE
22- Feb
-2010
Our long-term economic trend is weak. It suggests disappointing stock market returns in the months ahead. Another problem UK investors must contend with is the US presidential election cycle. It has a marked affect on the UK stock market. SMALL COMPANY SHARES BEAT THE BIG BOYS IN JANUARY 4- Feb -2010
It is a little-known but extremely important fact. Small companies usually out-perform the big boys at the start of the year. There is also a small company advantage near the beginning of a bull market. LONG-TERM OPTIMIST BUT SHORT-TERM PESSIMIST 7- Jan -2010
The bull market has further to run but 2010 still could end with a loss. ECONOMIC GROWTH IS THE KEY TO PROFITS IN 2010 16- Dec -2009
Some bull markets begin despite poor economic prospects. But once the initial spurt runs out of steam, there can be no further advances until the economy begins to grow. UPCOMING ELECTION SHOULD WORRY INVESTORS 19- Nov -2009
The recent rally is likely to run out of steam. Shares often do not do very well in the run-up to close elections. ANATOMY OF A CRASH 28- Oct -2009
Some investors worry about a stock market crash. If history is any guide, it will not happen in the very near future. THIS BULL MARKET IS DIFFERENT 1- Oct -2009
The easy money has already been made in this bull market. Hard thinking will be required to profit in the next phase. Technology shares are worth watching. STOCK MARKET STORMS OFTEN STRIKE IN SEPTEMBER 3- Sep -2009
Prospects for the next 9-12 months look rosy. But September often disappoints UK investors and this year is unlikely to be an exception. RANDOM WALK THEORY: A CONTRARIAN VIEW 30- Jul -2009
The academic community is beginning to question the validity of Random Walk theory. It is about time. More Upside To Come 30- Jun -2009
Several historical trends suggest that the next big move for the UK stock market will be to the up-side. “Sell In May”: Bad Advice 28- May -2009
History teaches that mid-year price weakness is a bear market issue. Prices usually rise during bull markets. PESSIMISTIC HEADLINES BUT UNDERLYING DATA TELLS A DIFFERENT TALE. 28- Apr -2009
There are times when news headlines tell a misleading tale about stock market prospects. Today’s headlines might turn out to be a good example. Don't let the doom and gloomsters pull you down 25- Mar -2009
The economic news is poor. Investors are frightened. But well-hidden below the surface, a number of clues suggest stock market prospects for the future are looking positive. “As January Goes, So Goes The Year” Is Nonsense 12- Feb -2009
Some investors are spooked by the message suggested by As January Goes….. Relax. History proves that you should not believe a word of this old adage. Where is the stock market heading in 2009? 8- Jan -2009
Investors may worry about banks, real estate and other aspects of the economy. But history sings a positive tune. If the past is any guide, prices should advance. BEAR MARKET ENDINGS – V-SHAPES AND U-SHAPES 15- Dec -2008
How will the bear market of 2007-8 end? A systematic review of other bear market bottoms provides some useful perspectives. November to April: A Profitable Investment Window 24- Nov -2008
UK investors usually profit by holding shares in the six months surrounding year-end. If history is any guide, this year is likely to follow the trend despite the horrid conditions of recent weeks. Fresh signals: Bear Market of 2007-2008 will soon end 28- Oct -2008
The new flow is horrid. Investors quake in their boots. But behind the scenes, some positive signs emerge. Bear Market of 2007-8. End may be in sight 26- Sep -2008
There are traditional ways to classify bear markets. And some novel ways as well. Here is one novel ranking system that suggests the bear market of 2007-8 may soon end. Changing Bear Market Trends 15- Aug -2008
Bear markets are occurring more often than ever before. Financial institutions have a lot to answer for. Systematic record keeping is important 18- Jul -2008
Here are some simple ways to monitor your trading performance. If done on a regular basis, it might even improve your long-term profits. Handsome Dividends For Free 27- Jun -2008
The London Stock Exchange web site offers a gold mine of information to private investors. Best of all, it is free For a prosperous retirement, you must save more today 28- May -2008
Stock market investments out-perform other investment classes by a healthy margin. Even so, many investors expect too much from their investment programme. The painful truth is that long-term benefits are much smaller than is commonly recognised. For a prosperous retirement, you must save more today 28- May -2008
Stock market investments out-perform other investment classes by a healthy margin. Even so, many investors expect too much from their investment programme. The painful truth is that long-term benefits are much smaller than is commonly recognised. Fresh facts about the Bear Market of 2007-08 1- Apr -2008
Here are some fresh signals about the health of the stock market. If history is to be believed, this patient is still quite ill. History warns this bear market has further to run 17- Mar -2008
During the last century, long-running bull markets were always followed by painful bear markets. Sad to say, the bull run of 2003-7 was a long-runner. Do January price swings have predictive value? 7- Feb -2008
Some claims about January's predictive power are not very accurate or useful. But one aspect of the January record is worth thinking about during 2008 The Bull Market Cupboard is Bare 4- Jan -2008
Several long-running historical trends warn that the UK stock market is likely to finish 2008 in the red. Volatility is a bear market signal 6- Dec -2007
The FTSE-100 turned in a sizzling gain of 178 points on December 5. It may seem odd to issue a bear market warning immediately after such a spurt. But huge inter-day price swings of recent weeks warn UK investors to proceed with caution. Time for short term traders to take centre stage 19- Nov -2007
We live in perilous times. If you want to invest, think short-term. Here is a strategy that can help you to turn a profit. Placing September's Rally Into A Meaningful Perspective 8- Oct -2007
Current economic reports do a poor job of predicting when a bear market will begin. But history occasionally provides us with a useful perspective about what lurks just ahead. Beware of earnings reports released on Friday at 4.30pm 10- Sep -2007
Some companies try to bury negative news by releasing it late Friday, near the closing bell. Perhaps they hope investors will mellow by Monday morning after a relaxing weekend of golf and gin and tonics. Poor Stock Market Conditions Likely to Continue 16- Aug -2007
History signals that the bear market of 2007 is now underway. No rally runs forever 6- Jul -2007
UK shares have risen steadily for more than four years. Here are some history-linked clues about what might lie ahead. Are shares ready to peak? History signals not just yet 1- Jun -2007
History teaches that modest gains in January to May, like we saw this year, are usually followed by further gains in the rest of the year. Is this a bull market? bear market? History's verdict. 6- Mar -2007
When stock market prices drop suddenly and sharply, investors worry. History offers a unique perspective about the significance of the current decline. November to April. Money Making/Money Losing Time? Here Are The Facts. 1- Nov -2005
Investing in UK shares can be quite profitable in November to April, especially during bull markets. But the bear market trend frequently disappoints investors. Bull Markets Do Not Rise Forever 5- Oct -2005
History teaches the typical bull market rally runs for a much shorter period of time than is commonly assumed. Garbage companies but not garbage shares 6- Sep -2005
Companies that process or recycle household and industrial waste are worth a second look. Don’t be terrorized into selling 11- Aug -2005
History teaches that terrorism has no lasting effect on shares. Treat any knee-jerk sell-off as a buying opportunity. Day trading and interest rate announcements are a tough way to make a living 7- Jul -2005
Trade cautiously. A few profit windows do exist when the MPC issues its monthly announcement but the stock market often does not behave as expected. Take a Bet on Gambling Shares 6- Jun -2005
There are four segments of the gambling industry. If you are thinking of dipping your toe into this sector, here are pitfalls to avoid. Electricity: Defensive Shares For Worrying Times 29- Apr -2005
Sector shares often do better than average during bear markets and during the summer doldrums. Sell In May and Go Away? Not So Fast. 7- Apr -2005
Will shares fall this year from May to October? A simple trend to monitor at the end of April might tip the answer. Food Producers & Processors likely to produce a sour taste 9- Mar -2005
This sector will be held back by health concerns and a loss of pricing power for a long time. Pharmaceutical Sector: No Longer in Intensive Care 9- Feb -2005
Ignore upsetting news headlines. Pharmaceutical shares have bottomed out. Here is how to gauge prospects for a new sector-wide bull market History warns of weak 2005 stock market prospects 30- Dec -2004
Stock Market Historian David Schwartz correctly forecast the UK price trend in 2003 and 2004. His view for 2005 will disappoint those hoping for three gains in a row. Check the calendar. Money-making time has arrived 1- Dec -2004
It is important to hold shares during the winter months. Mining Sector: Digging Up Important Data 1- Nov -2004
Volatility is a fact of life in this fast-moving sector. Here are some clues to help you to intelligently invest in mining shares. Computer Hardware Shares: Buckle Up for a Wild Ride 1- Oct -2004
Here are some guidelines on how to play the FTSE-IT Hardware sector. Share tipsters: choose cautiously 31- Aug -2004
There are huge differences in quality between rival share tipping services. Here are tips that tip the best tipster. Shares Likely to Rise By Year-End 2- Aug -2004
Ignore opinions from doom and gloomsters. Objective historical facts suggest positive prospects for the second-half of 2004. House Builders: Trouble ahead 14- Jun -2004
Sector shares typically do not advance during interest rate up-cycles
Our long-term economic trend is weak. It suggests disappointing stock market returns in the months ahead. Another problem UK investors must contend with is the US presidential election cycle. It has a marked affect on the UK stock market. SMALL COMPANY SHARES BEAT THE BIG BOYS IN JANUARY 4- Feb -2010
It is a little-known but extremely important fact. Small companies usually out-perform the big boys at the start of the year. There is also a small company advantage near the beginning of a bull market. LONG-TERM OPTIMIST BUT SHORT-TERM PESSIMIST 7- Jan -2010
The bull market has further to run but 2010 still could end with a loss. ECONOMIC GROWTH IS THE KEY TO PROFITS IN 2010 16- Dec -2009
Some bull markets begin despite poor economic prospects. But once the initial spurt runs out of steam, there can be no further advances until the economy begins to grow. UPCOMING ELECTION SHOULD WORRY INVESTORS 19- Nov -2009
The recent rally is likely to run out of steam. Shares often do not do very well in the run-up to close elections. ANATOMY OF A CRASH 28- Oct -2009
Some investors worry about a stock market crash. If history is any guide, it will not happen in the very near future. THIS BULL MARKET IS DIFFERENT 1- Oct -2009
The easy money has already been made in this bull market. Hard thinking will be required to profit in the next phase. Technology shares are worth watching. STOCK MARKET STORMS OFTEN STRIKE IN SEPTEMBER 3- Sep -2009
Prospects for the next 9-12 months look rosy. But September often disappoints UK investors and this year is unlikely to be an exception. RANDOM WALK THEORY: A CONTRARIAN VIEW 30- Jul -2009
The academic community is beginning to question the validity of Random Walk theory. It is about time. More Upside To Come 30- Jun -2009
Several historical trends suggest that the next big move for the UK stock market will be to the up-side. “Sell In May”: Bad Advice 28- May -2009
History teaches that mid-year price weakness is a bear market issue. Prices usually rise during bull markets. PESSIMISTIC HEADLINES BUT UNDERLYING DATA TELLS A DIFFERENT TALE. 28- Apr -2009
There are times when news headlines tell a misleading tale about stock market prospects. Today’s headlines might turn out to be a good example. Don't let the doom and gloomsters pull you down 25- Mar -2009
The economic news is poor. Investors are frightened. But well-hidden below the surface, a number of clues suggest stock market prospects for the future are looking positive. “As January Goes, So Goes The Year” Is Nonsense 12- Feb -2009
Some investors are spooked by the message suggested by As January Goes….. Relax. History proves that you should not believe a word of this old adage. Where is the stock market heading in 2009? 8- Jan -2009
Investors may worry about banks, real estate and other aspects of the economy. But history sings a positive tune. If the past is any guide, prices should advance. BEAR MARKET ENDINGS – V-SHAPES AND U-SHAPES 15- Dec -2008
How will the bear market of 2007-8 end? A systematic review of other bear market bottoms provides some useful perspectives. November to April: A Profitable Investment Window 24- Nov -2008
UK investors usually profit by holding shares in the six months surrounding year-end. If history is any guide, this year is likely to follow the trend despite the horrid conditions of recent weeks. Fresh signals: Bear Market of 2007-2008 will soon end 28- Oct -2008
The new flow is horrid. Investors quake in their boots. But behind the scenes, some positive signs emerge. Bear Market of 2007-8. End may be in sight 26- Sep -2008
There are traditional ways to classify bear markets. And some novel ways as well. Here is one novel ranking system that suggests the bear market of 2007-8 may soon end. Changing Bear Market Trends 15- Aug -2008
Bear markets are occurring more often than ever before. Financial institutions have a lot to answer for. Systematic record keeping is important 18- Jul -2008
Here are some simple ways to monitor your trading performance. If done on a regular basis, it might even improve your long-term profits. Handsome Dividends For Free 27- Jun -2008
The London Stock Exchange web site offers a gold mine of information to private investors. Best of all, it is free For a prosperous retirement, you must save more today 28- May -2008
Stock market investments out-perform other investment classes by a healthy margin. Even so, many investors expect too much from their investment programme. The painful truth is that long-term benefits are much smaller than is commonly recognised. For a prosperous retirement, you must save more today 28- May -2008
Stock market investments out-perform other investment classes by a healthy margin. Even so, many investors expect too much from their investment programme. The painful truth is that long-term benefits are much smaller than is commonly recognised. Fresh facts about the Bear Market of 2007-08 1- Apr -2008
Here are some fresh signals about the health of the stock market. If history is to be believed, this patient is still quite ill. History warns this bear market has further to run 17- Mar -2008
During the last century, long-running bull markets were always followed by painful bear markets. Sad to say, the bull run of 2003-7 was a long-runner. Do January price swings have predictive value? 7- Feb -2008
Some claims about January's predictive power are not very accurate or useful. But one aspect of the January record is worth thinking about during 2008 The Bull Market Cupboard is Bare 4- Jan -2008
Several long-running historical trends warn that the UK stock market is likely to finish 2008 in the red. Volatility is a bear market signal 6- Dec -2007
The FTSE-100 turned in a sizzling gain of 178 points on December 5. It may seem odd to issue a bear market warning immediately after such a spurt. But huge inter-day price swings of recent weeks warn UK investors to proceed with caution. Time for short term traders to take centre stage 19- Nov -2007
We live in perilous times. If you want to invest, think short-term. Here is a strategy that can help you to turn a profit. Placing September's Rally Into A Meaningful Perspective 8- Oct -2007
Current economic reports do a poor job of predicting when a bear market will begin. But history occasionally provides us with a useful perspective about what lurks just ahead. Beware of earnings reports released on Friday at 4.30pm 10- Sep -2007
Some companies try to bury negative news by releasing it late Friday, near the closing bell. Perhaps they hope investors will mellow by Monday morning after a relaxing weekend of golf and gin and tonics. Poor Stock Market Conditions Likely to Continue 16- Aug -2007
History signals that the bear market of 2007 is now underway. No rally runs forever 6- Jul -2007
UK shares have risen steadily for more than four years. Here are some history-linked clues about what might lie ahead. Are shares ready to peak? History signals not just yet 1- Jun -2007
History teaches that modest gains in January to May, like we saw this year, are usually followed by further gains in the rest of the year. Is this a bull market? bear market? History's verdict. 6- Mar -2007
When stock market prices drop suddenly and sharply, investors worry. History offers a unique perspective about the significance of the current decline. November to April. Money Making/Money Losing Time? Here Are The Facts. 1- Nov -2005
Investing in UK shares can be quite profitable in November to April, especially during bull markets. But the bear market trend frequently disappoints investors. Bull Markets Do Not Rise Forever 5- Oct -2005
History teaches the typical bull market rally runs for a much shorter period of time than is commonly assumed. Garbage companies but not garbage shares 6- Sep -2005
Companies that process or recycle household and industrial waste are worth a second look. Don’t be terrorized into selling 11- Aug -2005
History teaches that terrorism has no lasting effect on shares. Treat any knee-jerk sell-off as a buying opportunity. Day trading and interest rate announcements are a tough way to make a living 7- Jul -2005
Trade cautiously. A few profit windows do exist when the MPC issues its monthly announcement but the stock market often does not behave as expected. Take a Bet on Gambling Shares 6- Jun -2005
There are four segments of the gambling industry. If you are thinking of dipping your toe into this sector, here are pitfalls to avoid. Electricity: Defensive Shares For Worrying Times 29- Apr -2005
Sector shares often do better than average during bear markets and during the summer doldrums. Sell In May and Go Away? Not So Fast. 7- Apr -2005
Will shares fall this year from May to October? A simple trend to monitor at the end of April might tip the answer. Food Producers & Processors likely to produce a sour taste 9- Mar -2005
This sector will be held back by health concerns and a loss of pricing power for a long time. Pharmaceutical Sector: No Longer in Intensive Care 9- Feb -2005
Ignore upsetting news headlines. Pharmaceutical shares have bottomed out. Here is how to gauge prospects for a new sector-wide bull market History warns of weak 2005 stock market prospects 30- Dec -2004
Stock Market Historian David Schwartz correctly forecast the UK price trend in 2003 and 2004. His view for 2005 will disappoint those hoping for three gains in a row. Check the calendar. Money-making time has arrived 1- Dec -2004
It is important to hold shares during the winter months. Mining Sector: Digging Up Important Data 1- Nov -2004
Volatility is a fact of life in this fast-moving sector. Here are some clues to help you to intelligently invest in mining shares. Computer Hardware Shares: Buckle Up for a Wild Ride 1- Oct -2004
Here are some guidelines on how to play the FTSE-IT Hardware sector. Share tipsters: choose cautiously 31- Aug -2004
There are huge differences in quality between rival share tipping services. Here are tips that tip the best tipster. Shares Likely to Rise By Year-End 2- Aug -2004
Ignore opinions from doom and gloomsters. Objective historical facts suggest positive prospects for the second-half of 2004. House Builders: Trouble ahead 14- Jun -2004
Sector shares typically do not advance during interest rate up-cycles
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