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Final tally for Q1


By Bobby Rakhit 14:50 6- Jun -2007

DJ Stoxx 600 profit growth is somewhat inspired by earnings surprises in continental Europe. 2007 Growth is up 40 basis point during the earnings season to 6.6%.



Continental Europe continues to steam ahead with the greatest upward profit revisions in Germany and the Nordic region.

  • M&A continues to be the hot story and highlights the general under-valuation of equities in a helpful economic environment. But if it continues at its present rate it will amount to a frightening 10% of world stock market capitalisation this year; it could indicate a new financial bubble.

  • Profit warnings is indicative of the flat market, however the breadth ratio (analyst sentiment) is up 5% in the month.

  • Chemical, Insurance and Financial Services sectors continue to have the strongest 3-month 2007 profit revisions. TMT and Oils remain soft.


In the Numbers

  • DJ STOXX 600 2007 EPS growth rate is 6.4% compared to 16.5% last year

  • DJ STOXX 600 2007 P/E trades at


Valuation


Trailing 12M P/E

Forward 12M P/E

Dispersion

Travel & Leisure

19.9 x

16.7 x

17.5 x

Industrial Goods & Services

19.6 x

16.7 x

-2.9 x

Automobiles & Parts

16.1 x

13.2 x

-2.9 x

Industrial

19.1 x

16.6 x

-2.5 x

Technology

19.8 x

17.5 x

-2.3 x

DJ Stoxx 600

15.0 x

13.9 x

-1.1

Best – Weekly Performance (1 week 2007 EPS revisions %)

DJ Stoxx /2/ Automobiles & Parts 5.0%

DJ Stoxx /2/ Chemicals 3.7%

DJ Stoxx /2/ Financial Services 3.3%

DJ Stoxx /2/ Oil & Gas 1.9%


Worst – Weekly Performance (1 week 2007 EPS revisions %)

DJ Stoxx /2/ Insurance -1.3%

DJ Stoxx /1/ Health Care -0.8%

DJ Stoxx /1/ Technology -0.6%

DJ Stoxx /1/ Telecommunications -0.5%


European Earnings Score


Good, Bad and the Ugly


EPS

Pretax

Sales

Good

60%

38%

42%

Bad

28%

34%

29%

in-line

12%

29%

29%


Cost cutting continues to be the main catalyst.


M&A in the Forefront

Rumors, and transactions continue to spur equity markets. European markets are up about 8% from the beginning of the year, however there is a real fear. The bogyman in this case is private equity. If it continues at its present rate it will amount to a frightening 10% of world stock market capitalisation this year, which could indicate a new financial bubble.




These views are independent of FactSet Europe Ltd and are proprietary to Bobby Rakhit. For the full report and individual sector reviews and recommendations please contact rakhitreport@yahoo.co.uk.

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