Nuclear Energy

Will Fukushima drive the world from nuclear to renewables?

The tsunami and earthquake that hit Japan’s Fukushima nuclear plant in March led to a human and environmental tragedy. But the nuclear fallout was also a catastrophe for those trying to convince the world that developing nuclear power is essential to our future. These proponents say nuclear energy is one of the best renewable energy sources we have, or at the very least the best solution to bridge the gap while we wait for ‘green’ energy sources to come into widespread use. They describe it as renewable because it does not produce smoke or carbon dioxide, so it does not contribute to the greenhouse effect. It produces huge amounts of energy from small amounts of fuel, while producing small amounts of waste.

It also costs about the same price as coal. Of course, the small amount of waste it does produce is highly dangerous and needs to be stored for thousands of years before it is safe again. Anti-nuclear campaigners also take serious issue with the renewable tag as it relies on uranium, which is a finite resource. They have been backed up the International Renewable Energy Agency.
But the fallout at Fukushima -the biggest since Chernobyl in 1986 – dramatically skewed the argument as nations rushed to distance themselves from nuclear power. In May the Swiss government decided to abandon plans to build new nuclear reactors. The country’s five existing reactors will not be replaced at the end of their life span, which will be 2034.

Austria took similar steps. Most dramatic of all was Germany, which said it will shut all its nuclear reactors by 2022; this from a country that had just instigated a policy of extending the life of its plants and relies on nuclear energy for about a quarter of its power needs. In Italy, a referendum on nuclear power in June showed the ill-feeling toward nuclear goes beyond politicians. More than 94% of voters opposed the government's plans to resume nuclear power generation, which had been stopped in the 1980s.

They ignored government pleas that it was needed to supply 20% of the nation’s energy. Nuclear power’s loss could become renewable energy’s gain. Japan said it would work to make sure green energy would play a larger role in future energy policy. Italy’s government has committed itself to the creation of more solar power and wind power. But a concerted shift to renewables is far from certain. In Germany a study prepared by the Institute of Energy Economics at Cologne University, and consultancies, GWS and Prognos, found the energy gap that could be created the country’s anti-nuclear stance was more likely to be filled by new gas-fired power plants and electricity imports.Furthermore both Germany and Italy will continue to import other nations’ nuclear power, even if they don’t make it themselves.

There are still plenty of nations in Europe who are willing to service the nuclear need, including the UK and France. The latter has 58 of the EU's 143 reactors and is currently building more. Poland has reaffirmed its commitment to build its first generation of nuclear power stations.

Other big players committed to nuclear include China, India, Russia and the USA. The Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) sees a decade of growth for nuclear power with only a marginal impact from the Fukushima accident.
In a recent report, The Future of Nuclear Energy, the EIU reduced its expectations for global nuclear capacity in 2020, but the figure still grows by 27% compared to 2010. Germany's early closure of eight reactors, with the rest following before 2022, makes the only real dent in capacity but this is offset by equivalent new build in France and the USA.

It says new programs that are coming online in China alone will add almost five times the capacity that Germany plans to shut by 2020. "Nuclear energy is a response to long-term trends, and hence not easily abandoned or replaced,” the report said. “The need for new sources of electricity to power economic growth persists, and the promise of nuclear in bolstering energy security and reducing carbon emissions makes it an appealing option.

" BP’s Energy Outlook 2030 report makes a similar growth forecast with nuclear energy rising from 5.2% of the world’s primary energy consumption in 2010 to somewhat more than 7%. But the oil giant also predicts that by 2030 renewable energy will have leapt from around 2% of output to match nuclear’s contribution. Renewables (including biofuels) will account for 18% of the growth in energy to 2030, it said. That would make the rate at which renewables penetrate the global energy market similar to the emergence of nuclear power in the 1970s and 1980s.