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Justin Urquhart Stewart archive
Justin is one of the most recognisable and trusted market commentators on television, radio, and in the press. He has observed the retail market industry for 20 years whilst at Barclays Stockbrokers, and developed a unique understanding of the market's roles and benefits for the private investor. Justin is a director and co-founder of Seven Investment Management.
Some Chipped China?We are by now quite used to those more descriptive Chinese expressions and terminology – they often seem to come with references to wildlife and nature as well as often with a more Confucian style. Date of publication 01/12/2008 13:38 Spend Spend Spend – Please!And so the cry goes up – “tax cuts – give them the money and they will spend our way out of this recession”. Oh the power of popular mantra. Date of publication 21/11/2008 16:57 Blowing the TanksIt feels a bit like the scene in that iconic German film “Das Boot” when the submarine commander orders all the tanks to be blown in a vain effort to try and stop the damaged U-boat from sinking. Date of publication 14/11/2008 16:47 “If you go down to the Woods (Bretton) today you are sure of a big surprise.”This week the meeting of the “G20” in Washington on the 15th has the opportunity to be an extremely important event. Although some have tagged it as the opportunity to create a new “Bretton Woods” international agreement for a new financial world order, the reality is going to be considerably less but nonetheless the meeting is still going to be vital. Date of publication 12/11/2008 12:18 Who Needs Gunpowder?In 1605 Guy Fawkes wanted to destroy most of the English establishment and its parliament along with its new Scottish King, James VI, with some good old fashioned gunpowder. Date of publication 31/10/2008 16:58 Halloween MasksIt’s been getting darker – not just because of the UK changes over to Winter timing - but rather because last week was when those in power finally admitted to the inevitable; that we are in for a recession, and probably quite a prolonged one at that. Date of publication 27/10/2008 12:27 “Back in the USSA”
The land of the free and the stalwart of the capitalist system, America stands as the bulwark against socialism and as the advocate of the free economy. Well, that is the usual mantra but of course not everything is quite as it seems. Date of publication 20/10/2008 09:28 The End of the Beginning?Watching the fortresses of capitalism crumbling before our eyes has been an astonishing nay frightening, act to behold. Date of publication 06/10/2008 13:35 The End of an ErrorA recently spotted American bumper sticker read as follows: “20th January 2009 – The End of an Error”. Date of publication 29/09/2008 15:06 A Whiff of Cordite
Forgive me this week for a bit of personal commentary – but the events and feelings of the past few days I think should be recorded for more proper recollection once the dust of this destruction has had time to settle. Date of publication 22/09/2008 09:29 Sheer capitalism reveals a Bear’s tender spotIn the good old days Russia would not have had this problem. If you had trouble with a tiresome neighbour or a stroppy ally, you could always go in and park your tanks on their lawn, and frankly there was little anyone could do apart from bleat and protest for a while. Date of publication 15/09/2008 10:59 Oriental Discounts“Its growth Jim, but not as we know it” would be the Trekkie’s description of what has been happening in Asia. Asian stock markets, excluding Japan, have for the most part been the darlings of the equity investment world over the past few years. Date of publication 08/09/2008 16:51 Indebted UKIf there is one area where we have managed to beat our American cousins in a league table it would appear to be with our accumulation of debt – unsecured personal debt. Date of publication 01/09/2008 15:38 The Fine Discipline of Chess
Well that serves me right! Take a couple of weeks holiday and look what happens – oil pulls back 8.2%, the $ rises and the £ falls back 4.4% against it, and then to cap it all the Bear starts beating up the Georgians. In just a fortnight the world seems to have taken on a different hue. Date of publication 26/08/2008 09:57 Going for GoldFour years, some twenty billion pounds, several ‘Free Tibet’ protestors, and a visually modified opening ceremony later, the games finally got underway at the Beijing Olympics 2008. Date of publication 18/08/2008 12:40 The Seven Wonders of the Doha Trade RoundJustin is away in the Green Mountains of Vermont kindly adding to the pockets of the American tourism industry and sampling maple candy, leaving me to compose something sensible to say about the Doha Trade round. Date of publication 11/08/2008 10:54 Summer Storms and a Summer SojournUnfortunately the very mention of global trade talks normally results in a glazed expression appearing across people’s faces. Date of publication 04/08/2008 12:52 Emerging and SubmergingFrom 1996 to 2000, with the honourable exception of 1999, the asset class of Emerging Market Equities was one of the worst performers, competing only with Gold, Commodities and Japanese equities for the title of ‘Dog of the Year’. Date of publication 21/07/2008 12:39 In the long term...?
Shares give you one of the best returns in the long term – well that’s what we are all told. After all if you had invested in March 1998 in the FTSE 100 at 5442, you would after ten years of equity growth, have reached the towering level of – oh – 5442!
Date of publication 14/07/2008 17:08 Survival of the LeanestLast week may not have been the final capitulation, but it certainly sent a shudder through many, normally quite stoic, investors. Date of publication 07/07/2008 13:05 Trader or speculator?I was trying to concentrate on giving a presentation on global markets last week whilst staring out over the stunning St Aubyn’s Bay in Jersey, and I found myself having to answer a similar question several times – on the lines of “are speculators ruining our markets?” Date of publication 30/06/2008 12:58 Ding Dong – not so merrilyIt was with some concern that I sat and listened late last year to an investment adviser extolling the great benefits of some of the more exotic emerging markets. Date of publication 30/06/2008 12:53 Feeling QueasyI have an uneasy feeling at the moment. With a growing list of financial fears including the Badly & Bungled (Bradford & Bingley) fiasco, a close run thing with the RBS rights issue and the HBOS call in trouble and very nearly underwater, confidence is wearing thin. Date of publication 16/06/2008 09:56 Joining the dots of historySearching for a specific piece of economic data can be likened to going on a journey. You never know where you might end up. Date of publication 09/06/2008 13:34 The Gift of GivingThe British Retail Consortium (BRC) reported this month that retail sales fell for the second month in a row. Like for like sales fell 1.5%, apparently hitting depths of gloom not seen since 2005! Date of publication 02/06/2008 15:43 As Safe as Houses?A bar of Aero has been my usual analogy for the UK residential housing market. This was on the basis that there isn’t one single market but lots of different ones and not one bubble but all sorts of bubbles of different sizes. Date of publication 27/05/2008 10:24 Currency ConundrumsSo the Dollar is doomed? Despite the recent rally, if you were to believe by far and away the majority of commentaries one could easily assume that the great greenback is doomed to yet further falls. Date of publication 20/05/2008 11:14 It’s that wretched rhyme againSo – should we “sell in May and go away, and not come back until St Leger Day”? Well it would be certainly tempting when you look at some of the issues surrounding us. Date of publication 13/05/2008 10:13 Maybe not just a passing problem? Inflation
Damn statistics and damn politicians don’t blend well together. After highlighting some of the obfuscation around the unemployment numbers recently, it makes sense to move onto another vexed question – what exactly is the rate of our inflation? Date of publication 28/04/2008 12:02 Too Good To Be True?“Jobs figures bring welcome relief” was the leading headline – but in my view not so much relief as astonishment. Date of publication 23/04/2008 13:53 Please Sir, Can I have some more?What do Chinese pork, Indian rice, Australian wheat and U.S. corn have in common? Unfortunately right now, a great deal! Date of publication 14/04/2008 12:26 Is this the world’s biggest hedge fund?What do you call a hedge fund with a government? Probably Iceland. For a country with the population approximately the same as that of Scunthorpe, this little nation has made a remarkable amount of noise over recent years. Date of publication 07/04/2008 12:09 Breaking down some barriersIf volatile markets do one thing, at least they make people think more about what is happening to their money – even if it is just on the basis of fear. Date of publication 01/04/2008 11:13 Lies, Damned Lies, and StatisticsIf Mark Twain were alive today uttering these now famous words, I wonder just how amused he would be with how we have become subservient to a plethora of numbers. Date of publication 26/03/2008 10:39 Going to “L” in a hand cart
“Well what shape is it?” has been one of the most recent questions I have been faced with. Date of publication 17/03/2008 12:56 Somewhere over SumatraSingapore I regard as my second home – tidier, warmer and generally better organised than West London. Date of publication 10/03/2008 12:21 Sunshine and RosesHere at the headquarters of Seven Investment Management, we in the investment management team are renowned for our rather pessimistic economic views and are affectionately called the ‘doom and gloom corner’. Date of publication 03/03/2008 12:34 The Refined Art of Rock Knocking
Oh what a chorus of half baked ill informed wingers. Since the decision to “nationalise” the Rock last Sunday, we seem to have suffered the rants and ravings of anybody with a view about the apparent impending demise of this institution. Date of publication 25/02/2008 16:29 There will be bloodWhat an apt title – this recently released film about an early rapacious American oil magnate has provided a most pertinent title for some comments this week. Date of publication 18/02/2008 11:37 Xīn Nián Hǎo! – Happy RatFor my Chinese cousins 8 is a very lucky number and thus this year should be one of good joss, but so far the outlook would appear far from positive – in fact more like a 4. Date of publication 11/02/2008 11:49 Feeling a little queasy? Pass the StugeronWhat a difference a week can make. A stolen week away sailing meant that I could only listen to the unfolding financial turmoil of weakening economies, bank fraud and falling markets via the crackly broadcasts of the BBC World Service. Date of publication 04/02/2008 12:08 FCUK - French Correction UK!Justin Urquhart Stewart in his previous columns has consistently pointed out the poor handling of the Northern Rock crisis. Nothing demonstrates this better than the events of this week in which another banking crisis was narrowly averted in France but handled in a slick and efficient manner. Date of publication 28/01/2008 12:04 Dissolved in the rain!From the resolute equity markets of only a year ago, all the confidence and enthusiasm seems to have been totally dissolved. Date of publication 21/01/2008 14:47 The next “dead cert”Investment markets thrive on fashion fads and betting on the next “sure fire” investment winners. Date of publication 14/01/2008 14:35 Beware of Eastern PromiseI am not sure when I can last remember such a headline before - but the bold strap line of “Singapore suffers economic growth slowdown” is not one to be seen very often. Date of publication 07/01/2008 13:04 A Gift of Financial Myrrh or Mire?The past few weeks have seen some very dramatic if not unprecedented action by the main central banks around the globe. Date of publication 24/12/2007 09:28 The Search for Silver Liningsreverberating sounds of creaking property values, many investors have felt the fear of falling investment values. Date of publication 18/12/2007 16:07 It’s that word again – Stagflation
For those of a certain age, this is a word that induces a depressing recall of a failing British economy lampooned as the sick man of Europe. Stagflation is the evil concoction of a stagnating economy blighted by persistent inflation – or in other words rising prices in a weakening economy. Date of publication 10/12/2007 10:13 Angel of the North?What a farrago. If you wrote it as fiction no-one would believe you. Between my writing and your kindly reading these comments, it is just possible that the whole issue has been resolved, but somehow I doubt it. Date of publication 03/12/2007 10:51 When In A MaelstromIt is difficult to achieve any form of perspective when sitting in the midst of a maelstrom; it is thus all the more important to check the charts to see through the day to day short term buffeting of a financial storm. Date of publication 26/11/2007 09:30 China Price or What Price China?China’s greatest export for over a decade was deflation – anything we could make, they could make cheaper – and no doubt still can. Date of publication 21/11/2007 12:06 Powerless
Powerless in the face of the water companies, powerless in the face of the cable companies and in fact shortly - just powerless altogether. Date of publication 06/11/2007 11:34 Three Strikes and You’re Out!It was supposed to be a celebration of talent across the sporting world. England was supposed to be triumphant in football, be mighty and victorious in rugby, and the young Hamilton was mere points away from the coveted world championship. Date of publication 29/10/2007 11:44 More money – less valueGood news - we are earning more: Bad news - we’ve got less to spend. I had better explain. Date of publication 15/10/2007 09:57 Safe As HousesProbably the best decision they never made. I am referring, of course, to Barclays and their failed bid for ABNAmro. Date of publication 08/10/2007 12:00 Dancing with DangerOne may disagree over the precise value and importance of the financial services sector to the UK economy, but I think even the most awkward of political nihilists would agree that it was at the very least both substantial and significant. Date of publication 01/10/2007 17:00 Always look on the bright side of lifeThe turmoil induced by the ongoing sub-prime saga, its consequential credit crunch and Central Bank reactions have certainly kept markets and commentators very busy this week.Date of publication 24/09/2007 12:02 More fun at Doncaster?It’s that time of year again for the second half of that old adage “Sell in May and go away, and don’t return until St Leger Day”. Date of publication 17/09/2007 09:41 The 5th Labour – The Augean Stables
Whilst the financial upheavals continue, perhaps it is a suitable time to look at the background of the greater global economic position. Although some are calling profound doom and gloom and forming queues for the windowsill, with deep recession being predicted, it is interesting to note how long we have gone on without one. Date of publication 11/09/2007 11:08 Another Great FireThis week there is a rather untimely anniversary. It is that of the great conflagration of London back in 1666. Date of publication 03/09/2007 11:48 Suffering Storm DamageAs the unfortunate population of Jamaica and Belize will attest, meteorological storms cause far more immediate physical damage than financial ones. However, as we will identify over the next few weeks, financial storms do also cause considerable losses but their effect and impact may not be so obvious. Date of publication 29/08/2007 00:00 Pride before the FallOnly a few weeks ago, and quite justifiably, some of the attitudes and behaviour of certain investment participants could have been described as arrogant – they were hugely successful as they headed off for their Summer holidays, basking in the knowledge that they had made all the right investment decisions. Date of publication 20/08/2007 09:47 A New Headmaster – You Had Better Behave NowThe US banking and financial system has a new Headmaster. And just like any new leader, the new head wants to change the way things are run. Date of publication 13/08/2007 15:51 The ‘L’ WordSome of you may think that I am talking about the four letter ‘L’ word – Love. Date of publication 06/08/2007 13:19 Rain Rain Go Away
It wasn’t just the gloom of dark rain clouds hovering ominously overhead that the City had to contend with this week. Date of publication 30/07/2007 14:52 State of Denial - Put Off Yet?
On both sides of the pond it appears that there is an increasing division of views between the enthusiastic bulls pointing to certain encouraging corporate Q2 results and those bears who stare with increased nervousness at the burgeoning credit and debt market worries. Date of publication 23/07/2007 12:31 Get real on real estate
So what happens if property prices do drop? It is a question that is haunting many at the moment. Date of publication 16/07/2007 09:10 “China Lite” – on a plane from Paphos
Is it being at 35,000 feet, or is it the second Bloody Mary, but thinking on a plane allows one to take a broader view on the global economy. Date of publication 02/07/2007 09:12 The Wrong HarvestI can recall the dark and dire warnings of the Reverend Thomas Malthus from my school days, which managed to scare us all into thinking that we were all doomed.Date of publication 18/06/2007 09:17 Bond Market Massacre
Much blood has been shed in the bond markets over the past fortnight. Date of publication 15/06/2007 09:14 As safe as....houses?
“Of course, it is different this time.” Well it always is every time someone tries to explain away a difficult situation. Thus when you talk about residential housing, people get very sensitive about it and some newspapers even make a living out of it, that is when they haven’t got another ridiculous story about Lady Di to go on about. Date of publication 11/06/2007 09:19 Food Glorious Food
Whilst Justin is away on business speaking to investors in the sunnier climbs of Luxembourg, he has once again bravely asked me to provide a view on what’s been happening in the financial world this week for his regular weekly column.Date of publication 04/06/2007 09:20 Bears behaving badly
If you are worried about a bear market, I would far rather you worried about a badly behaving bear. Russia’s new found confidence is showing some unpleasant traits. Date of publication 29/05/2007 09:21 Hacienda Horrors Last week the pain in Spain had nothing to do with the rain. Date of publication 30/04/2007 09:33 Dollar Doom-mongers These are days when many comments on the markets come under the heading of John Cleese’s “the stunningly obvious”. Date of publication 23/04/2007 09:32 Brown Market Housing
If the UK property market is to founder then in all likelihood it is going to be around the somewhat obese “buy to let” market. Date of publication 23/04/2007 09:25 The calm after the storm? After a week of cooing confidence it seems that the financial fears of last month have been soothed away in the Spring sunshine – what nonsense! Date of publication 16/04/2007 09:27 The Four “Uns” Last week we heard a further iteration of Mr Benanke’s thoughts on the US economy, and he has learnt quickly, after a few initial slips, to select his words very carefully. Date of publication 02/04/2007 09:29 Planner or Pedant? Although US interest rates remained on hold last week it seems that the markets now appear to be led by linguistic pedants leaping on the slightest change in intimation of the phrases used by the Fed in their statements. Date of publication 26/03/2007 09:30 Butterfly effect! Justin Urquhart Stewart – writer of the self titled ‘Justin’s Commentary’ column - is off speaking to investors in the Far East and has bravely left this week’s column to be written by his trusted understudy. So here goes….. Date of publication 19/03/2007 00:00 A Casino! The tremors of the past fortnight may have eased somewhat but I don’t think we should be fooled into thinking that any of the underlying questions that led to this point have now been resolved. Date of publication 12/03/2007 00:00 The year of the Pig or a Pig of a year? The phrase I have previously used was that “complacency was the smile of fools” – and last week that complacency was finally shattered as a series of events unintentionally conspired to shatter the alabaster smoothness of the global investment markets. Date of publication 06/03/2007 00:00 It’s growth Jim – but not as we know it There was some apparently positive news last week about UK companies. Something rather strange has been happening – they have actually been increasing their capital spending. Date of publication 26/02/2007 00:00 It's different for the Japanese Well things have certainly been changing in the world’s second largest national economy, as last week’s Japanese 4th Quarter GDP figures underlined. Date of publication 20/02/2007 00:00 A Corporate Soap – Ta Ta to the Cha Cha It’s not often you get some “soap opera”- like antics in financial services but last week’s finale to the Corus takeover had some style to it. Date of publication 05/02/2007 00:00 From Doyen Dog Just like being a British sporting star, investment markets can radically change from hero to horror on the spin of a coin. Date of publication 30/01/2007 00:00 When Playing Monopoly On the Monopoly board one of the dullest properties to buy was always the utilities. They didn’t cost much but they gave a pretty rotten return. How strangely quaint that seems now. Date of publication 22/01/2007 00:00 A Bear with a Sore Head If you found a bunch of vandals had been increasingly interfering with your local gas taps and power supplies, then at least a round of ASBO’s would probably be in order. Date of publication 15/01/2007 00:00 Shape Shifting The global investment markets are changing shape. Date of publication 08/01/2007 00:00 Christmas Treasury Management As the global economy heads for a slowdown, there has been a clamour for investments offering an increasingly sustainable and regular cash flow. Date of publication 21/12/2006 00:00 The Reality of a US Santa Rally? Some have been excited by the rapidity of the fall in the US $ over the past few months; others will be more fearful. Date of publication 18/12/2006 00:00 Green - or just effective camouflage? Well it might have been headlined as “green” and yes, there were some environmental bones lobbed in, but there were some particular areas of contradiction as well as some worrying concerns for the running of the economy further out in Gordon Brown’s pre-Budget speech. Date of publication 11/12/2006 00:00 Changing gear or gearing change? Another week and another set of takeovers, except that this time most barely got a mention or even received a raised eyebrow. Date of publication 28/11/2006 00:00 Bubbling Along? Three and half years of growth in the FTSE 100 should neither be ignored, nor sniffed at. Date of publication 20/11/2006 00:00 China chirps while Merkel’s mired Well it is not a bad cash pile by anyone’s measure. The announcement from The People’s Republic of China that their foreign currency reserves have now exceeded $1,000 billion is certainly a considerable milestone. Date of publication 13/11/2006 00:00 A change of air? Now that the festive arsenals of gunpowder have been unleashed, the smell of damp and burnt cordite still fills the air. Date of publication 06/11/2006 00:00 Changing Trains and Planes If proof were needed of the power of an emerging economic giant, then last week’s news of further Chinese plane and train orders should come as no surprise. Date of publication 30/10/2006 00:00 Time for a bigger bang?
As Sergeant Pepper’s band famously sang – “It was 20 years ago today…” and on the 26th October 1986 we did have a very significant change in the operation of the City – the Big Bang, which heralded in some of the most crucial changes in the operation of the stock market for generations. Date of publication 23/10/2006 00:00 Another four letter word – Risk
If there were no risk there would be no market – it may sound somewhat trite but probably true. Date of publication 16/10/2006 00:00 Pointing with an Index
All is not necessarily what it seems. Well certainly not when it comes to reading certain stock market indices. Date of publication 09/10/2006 00:00 And so it continues....
I must apologise for coming back to some regular subjects but like any good soap opera, the story lines come and go but rarely ever completely end. Date of publication 02/10/2006 00:00 Doom and Gloom? It may not look much like Summer, as rain sweeps the country, but it feels like it in markets this week. Date of publication 28/09/2006 00:00 Hedge Clippings
The hedge fund industry sometimes appears like an ocean of icebergs, with only their tips appearing above the surface with the rest of their vast bulk lurking invisibly beneath the surface. Date of publication 25/09/2006 00:00 Long Shadows
The events of September 11th will cast a long shadow, not just with the pain and the grief on such a diabolical act, but also in the change of attitude as the complacency of the Western powers was shattered as surely as the finest plate glass mirrors. Date of publication 18/09/2006 00:00 …..until St Leger Day
It is worthy of the best Brian Rix Whitehall farce and would be hilarious but for the fact that it seems to be true. The petulance of politicians never ceases to amaze, especially when their own pride and career are at stake. Date of publication 12/09/2006 00:00 Hi ho, hi ho... Satchels packed, sandwiches made and scarves wrapped up – the holidays are nearly over and the investment managers are trying (subject to South West Trains’ drivers) to get back to work. Date of publication 04/09/2006 00:00 A Basket Case A bit of a basket case is a good description of our inflation figures. Gordon Brown’s chosen measure for inflation is the Consumer Price Index (CPI) which, as we saw last week, slipped back to 2.4% (year on year) from 2.5% in June. Date of publication 21/08/2006 00:00 Return of the Inflatable Deer Central banks are not there to give stock market traders a free ride and thus last week’s decision by the Fed to “pause” its rate raising programme did little to reassure investors.
Date of publication 14/08/2006 00:00 An increasing amount of interest Well it may have been just a quarter of a percentage point but nonetheless the change made by the Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee marks a significant step after twelve months holding steady - and remember their last decision was downwards. Date of publication 07/08/2006 00:00 Chinese Exchequers Following on from my mutterings from Hong Kong last week, it has been interesting to watch the indications of possible action from the Chinese authorities about the speeding growth of their burgeoning economy. Date of publication 31/07/2006 00:00 A View from the Star Ferry How and where can you start to evaluate the dreadful events of the past few days? The true answer is that in reality we won’t fully be able to put these difficult days into context until the smoke finally clears from all the areas affected. Date of publication 24/07/2006 00:00 Rockets and Rates – up and down! I am sure that President Bush might have been delighted to hear of the celebratory rockets fired for the 4th of July – until he heard that they were from the North Koreans – still, nice of them to join in. Date of publication 10/07/2006 00:00 Rising – rates, confidence and risks If investment markets are lacking bullish backbone, the same cannot be said for the changing attitudes of business people in Germany. Date of publication 03/07/2006 00:00 Trading Places The continuing uncertainty and volatility generally seems to have turned the markets into a financial episode of ‘Grumpy Old Men’, with every negative issue greeted with a whinge and complaint and anything positive just reduced to a mere shrug of the shoulders. Date of publication 26/06/2006 00:00 Betting on hedges or hedging some bets? So what is it about the infrastructure of the United Kingdom that makes it so attractive to the rest of the world? Is it our renowned operational efficiency or maybe the outlook for strength and growth of the UK economy? Date of publication 19/06/2006 00:00 Naivety or Innocence? As the Summer market squall continues, so the level of investor confidence will erode. It is always difficult to see beyond such a turbulent time when markets seem to be in such turmoil. Date of publication 12/06/2006 00:00 New Hand at the Helm? In times of turbulence, people like to hear the calming voice of authority, if only to provide some comfort that there is someone who actually seems to understand just what might be going on. Date of publication 05/06/2006 00:00 Divine Inspiration or Conspiracy Theory? As soon as anyone declares a drought, you can guarantee that it’s going to rain – and when it rains, it pours, as we have certainly found out in London over the past few days. Date of publication 29/05/2006 00:00 On the slopes of Mount Merapi If you had been an Indonesian farmer on the slopes of Mount Merapi in Java, you would have been all too aware of the build up of tension around this volcano. From local tremors and minor earthquakes through to spewing smoke and pumice, the situation has been getting progressively more dangerous with now lava flowing out from its cracks and crevices. Date of publication 22/05/2006 00:00 Defying Gravity? If ever there were indicators or tell-tale signs that things might be going too far with commodity prices it was usually either people enthusiastically stating that the huge Canadian oil and tar sand deposits were now financially viable, or that the Welsh mining pits might now be reopened. Date of publication 15/05/2006 00:00 Another Melting Pot Watching markets grow and develop is fascinating - but seeing them grow in front of your eyes has to be astonishing. I was in Dubai for a fleeting visit last week and I noticed that various building developments visibly grew in just the few hours I was there. Date of publication 08/05/2006 00:00 Hydro Carbon Diplomacy The change last week in the Chinese one year benchmark lending rate from 5.58% to 5.85%, shouldn’t have come as any surprise as it had already been well flagged in advance. Date of publication 02/05/2006 00:00 April Spring Fever Well you can’t deny the enthusiasm. Just take a look at some of the issues - the world economy was described by the IMF as a going through a ‘purple patch’ - commodities have been supported by the continuing use of the phrase of a ‘super cycle’ - and even the FTSE 100 joined in by trying to reach out and touch the 6100 level. Date of publication 24/04/2006 00:00 A Commotion in Commodities For those of a certain age, the world of commodities used to bear more resemblance to the 1980’s Eddie Murphy film “Trading Places”, with a jolly tale of the manipulation of orange juice commodity prices. Date of publication 18/04/2006 00:00 So How Was It for You? The 1st Quarter So the daffodils are out, the clocks have gone forward, the ISAs are done and the tax year finishing – it must be the quarter end - and thus a suitable time to have a look back at what happened to the various asset classes over the last three months. Date of publication 10/04/2006 00:00 Are you a dedicated follower of fashion? The height of fashion for the past couple of years has, without any doubt, been the glittering display of the private equity market – a veritable peacock in your portfolio. Date of publication 03/04/2006 00:00 At Least Two Areas of Concern No I am not going to talk about the Budget – apart from, that is, mentioning two issues that I think may well have an impact on both investors and their advisors. Date of publication 27/03/2006 00:00 “Selling England by the Pound” There has been a general attitude that selling off the London Stock Exchange is just one of those things – a shrug of the shoulders and a mutter about free and open capitalism and that’s it apparently. Date of publication 20/03/2006 00:00 Another word from the Sage I am sure you will be aware of the annual pilgrimage (a sort of financial Hajj – oh dear am I allowed to write that?) that is carried out by the adoring fans of the Sage of Omaha. Date of publication 13/03/2006 00:00 Further Eurogain? The ECB decision to raise the Euro interest rate to 2.5% may not have come as any surprise but it is a significant indication of the changes that are now becoming more apparent within the Eurozone. Date of publication 06/03/2006 00:00 Changing Tides The tossing turbulence of the current merger and acquisition activity has certainly created a storm of excitement in the equity markets. Date of publication 27/02/2006 00:00 Time to stop the Euro-moan? Ah the joy of hyperbole! Barely a week goes by without a fearsome headline from a tabloid newspaper railing against the continental Europeans. Date of publication 20/02/2006 00:00 The lure of Spanish eyes The news last week that BAA might receive a bid certainly came as a surprise to the market, as illustrated by its 20% rise in the share price – surely, we all thought, it has been BAA that has been the aquisitor and would be one of the last companies of the FTSE 100 that might be a potential target for a predator. Date of publication 13/02/2006 00:00 A Whiff of Hypocrisy The atmosphere of the past week, and quite likely for this one to come, has hardly been conducive to an attitude of quiet confidence in either the political or economic world. Date of publication 06/02/2006 00:00 Happy New Year (of the Dog) - Consistency for private investors – Chinese volatility Politicians have never understood much about private investors. Whether it was the illusory desire for a shareholder democracy in the days of Mrs Thatcher, or the suspicious attitude of Labour MP’s many of whom seem to regard them as grasping and greedy stock market punters – both groups seem to wallow in dogma rather than reality. Date of publication 30/01/2006 00:00 In a world of plenty and poverty The real pain and putrification of desperate poverty is something that few of us, thankfully, have to experience first hand in the UK. Date of publication 23/01/2006 00:00 In a world of plenty and poverty The real pain and putrification of desperate poverty is something that few of us, thankfully, have to experience first hand in the UK. Date of publication 23/01/2006 00:00 The joys of cycling You may recall that late last year, in fact on 5th December in the Chancellor’s pre-Budget speech, the seven year economic cycle was confirmed as now becoming a remarkable twelve year cycle. Date of publication 16/01/2006 00:00 As we finished – so we started Ukraine, as far as the markets were concerned, was just too far away. Seemingly without a concern to any of the political implications of the rising gas prices, and consequently crude oil prices, this proved to be enough for the enthusiasm for the energy related stocks to continue their bullish run. Date of publication 09/01/2006 00:00 Energy, Elections and the Environment 3 E’s this year for me – Energy, Elections and the Environment. This, after all, was the year we saw record oil and gas prices – which as a producer would normally be good for us in the UK, except for the fact that we seem to be low on oil deposits and to have nearly run out of gas altogether. Date of publication 03/01/2006 00:00 Another piece of family silver? There seems now to be almost a tacit acceptance that the London Stock Exchange is going to be bought by someone or something in the near future. Date of publication 19/12/2005 00:00 No rabbits There were three key statistics that lodged in my brain from the Pre-Budget Speech last week – that along with a feeling of gloom that all is not so well as we prepare for 2006. Date of publication 12/12/2005 00:00 “Germany Calling” So what else could go wrong? 2005 must go down as one of the worst for the Euro zone nations. Date of publication 05/12/2005 00:00 United they stand – facing in different directions
Well at least we can clearly see the differences now. The Chancellor and The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of The Bank of England both agree that the UK economy is growing – but just not at the same rate and in fact they both seem to have increasingly different outlooks.
Date of publication 28/11/2005 00:00 Building up for Gordon So we can wait now with bated breath for the excitement that will be the Pre-Budget report from the Chancellor, set for 3.30pm on 5th December. Date of publication 28/11/2005 00:00 Another BRIC in the Wall What price a conscience? Well the visit last week of the Chinese President, Hu Jintao certainly raised a very valid question for investors about their attitudes towards the balance of the opportunity for their investment rewards as against their attitudes towards socially responsible and ethical investing. Date of publication 14/11/2005 00:00 A Week to remember and a Name to remember Merger Monday, Magic Monday or Manic Monday – whatever tabloid headline you would like to choose, last Monday was certainly an astonishing few hours. Date of publication 07/11/2005 00:00 |