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Global economic




Sheer capitalism reveals a Bear’s tender spot
By Justin Urquhart Stewart on 15/09/2008 10:59
In the good old days Russia would not have had this problem. If you had trouble with a tiresome neighbour or a stroppy ally, you could always go in and park your tanks on their lawn, and frankly there was little anyone could do apart from bleat and protest for a while.

Oriental Discounts
By Justin Urquhart Stewart on 08/09/2008 16:51
“Its growth Jim, but not as we know it” would be the Trekkie’s description of what has been happening in Asia. Asian stock markets, excluding Japan, have for the most part been the darlings of the equity investment world over the past few years.

Indebted UK
By Justin Urquhart Stewart on 01/09/2008 15:38
If there is one area where we have managed to beat our American cousins in a league table it would appear to be with our accumulation of debt – unsecured personal debt.

The Fine Discipline of Chess
By Justin Urquhart Stewart on 26/08/2008 09:57
Well that serves me right! Take a couple of weeks holiday and look what happens – oil pulls back 8.2%, the $ rises and the £ falls back 4.4% against it, and then to cap it all the Bear starts beating up the Georgians. In just a fortnight the world seems to have taken on a different hue.

Going for Gold
By Justin Urquhart Stewart on 18/08/2008 12:40
Four years, some twenty billion pounds, several ‘Free Tibet’ protestors, and a visually modified opening ceremony later, the games finally got underway at the Beijing Olympics 2008.

Lower gilt yields should help high yielding UK equities
By Mike Lenhoff on 15/08/2008 11:05
What was significant about this week’s UK inflation figures, which were higher than expected, was the response of the gilt market. Yields all round continued to fall. Index-linked have now recovered all the ground they lost last month and conventionals are continuing to rebound.

The Seven Wonders of the Doha Trade Round
By Justin Urquhart Stewart on 11/08/2008 10:54
Justin is away in the Green Mountains of Vermont kindly adding to the pockets of the American tourism industry and sampling maple candy, leaving me to compose something sensible to say about the Doha Trade round.

Summer Storms and a Summer Sojourn
By Justin Urquhart Stewart on 04/08/2008 12:52
Unfortunately the very mention of global trade talks normally results in a glazed expression appearing across people’s faces.

In the long term...?
By Justin Urquhart Stewart on 14/07/2008 17:08
Shares give you one of the best returns in the long term – well that’s what we are all told. After all if you had invested in March 1998 in the FTSE 100 at 5442, you would after ten years of equity growth, have reached the towering level of – oh – 5442!

Is it wrong to do business in Zimbabwe?
By Martin Vander Weyer on 09/07/2008 14:47
Shell and Barclays were the two highest-profile British companies in South Africa during the apartheid era.

Surprise, surprise – the US consumer saves all of Bush’s tax cuts and still continues to spend
By John Clarke on 04/07/2008 11:17
The May US personal income and outlay figures published at the end of last week told us two things. First, when the US consumer is suddenly “given” a cash windfall in this case, tax refund cheques equivalent to $400bn (at annualised rates) in May after $15.5bn in April, he or she is more likely to save it than spend it.

Ding Dong – not so merrily
By Justin Urquhart Stewart on 30/06/2008 12:53
It was with some concern that I sat and listened late last year to an investment adviser extolling the great benefits of some of the more exotic emerging markets.

Dow Jones tumbles yet again…
By Sandy Jadeja on 27/06/2008 12:08
After failing to hold the support level of 12208 – 12111 the Dow Jones index tumbled lower to lose -464 points.The trigger came through when the index broke below 12076 and very quickly saw the bears take control again to drive stocks lower just when traders thought we were on the verge of a rally.

The US dollar and oil...Clouds of war gathering for a perfect financial storm
By Greg Smith on 10/06/2008 15:52
Prior to the oil price going through the roof on Friday, something unusual occurred last week - the US dollar rallied, albeit briefly.

Joining the dots of history
By Justin Urquhart Stewart on 09/06/2008 13:34
Searching for a specific piece of economic data can be likened to going on a journey. You never know where you might end up.

On the profit-taking in bond and equity markets
By Mike Lenhoff on 02/06/2008 16:06
Yields in government bond markets are rising for at least three reasons. One is that inflation is surprising on the upside.

Currency Conundrums
By Justin Urquhart Stewart on 20/05/2008 11:14
So the Dollar is doomed? Despite the recent rally, if you were to believe by far and away the majority of commentaries one could easily assume that the great greenback is doomed to yet further falls.

These days, Vesco the fugitive fraudster would have had a top job on Wall Street
By Martin Vander Weyer on 15/05/2008 09:54
So farewell, Robert Vesco, the fraudster, drug trafficker and fugitive from US justice whose death last year has been 'confirmed by Cuban burial records', according to the Daily Telegraph.

Equity Markets Gain as Flight to Quality Abates!
By Mike Lenhoff on 28/04/2008 11:55
The chart shows the yield spread on below investment grade US corporate debt (solid line) as well as the ratio (dotted line) of upgrades to downgrades in the consensus earnings estimates for the S&P 500 - in this case, the 12-month forward earnings estimates.

Someone’s knockin’ at the door (part 2)
By Richard Hunter on 17/04/2008 13:31
In last week’s article, we looked at the factors surrounding the rise of Sovereign Wealth Funds, and this week we examine why this has caused some unease in certain global quarters.

Someone’s knockin’ at the door (part one)
By Richard Hunter on 17/04/2008 10:27
A growing and potentially market positive trend has been the continuing rise to prominence of Sovereign Wealth Funds, or SWFs.

Please Sir, Can I have some more?
By Justin Urquhart Stewart on 14/04/2008 12:26
What do Chinese pork, Indian rice, Australian wheat and U.S. corn have in common? Unfortunately right now, a great deal!

Is this the world’s biggest hedge fund?
By Justin Urquhart Stewart on 07/04/2008 12:09
What do you call a hedge fund with a government? Probably Iceland. For a country with the population approximately the same as that of Scunthorpe, this little nation has made a remarkable amount of noise over recent years.

The Credit Crunch
By Trading Post on 04/04/2008 09:15
This week on Trading Post, Matthew Lynn and his guests discuss one of the big issues facing the financial markets.

Nuclear energy
By Merryn Somerset Webb on 27/03/2008 12:35
THERE’S much talk these days about how everything from solar energy to wave energy and giant offshore wind farms are “the future”. And maybe they are.

Where next for Financial Markets?
By IFAs with Unbiased.co.uk on 26/03/2008 16:58
The world seems a much bleaker place than it did just a few months ago.

Going to “L” in a hand cart
By Justin Urquhart Stewart on 17/03/2008 12:56
“Well what shape is it?” has been one of the most recent questions I have been faced with.

Somewhere over Sumatra
By Justin Urquhart Stewart on 10/03/2008 12:21
Singapore I regard as my second home – tidier, warmer and generally better organised than West London.

What scrapes ice, picks locks, tempts shoppers -- and bolsters shaken banks?
By Martin Vander Weyer on 05/03/2008 17:05
'Sexual intercourse began in 1963,' wrote Philip Larkin; consumer debt, with similar connotations of gratification and regret, began in Britain three years later with the launch of Barclaycard, based on the model of the world's first mass-market credit card, BankAmericard in California, which dated back to 1958.

UK Equities Challenge Key Resistance!
By Mike Lenhoff on 04/03/2008 11:42
Two countervailing forces weigh on the global economy. One, originating in the developed world, is the disinflationary impact of the credit crisis.

Sunshine and Roses
By Justin Urquhart Stewart on 03/03/2008 12:34
Here at the headquarters of Seven Investment Management, we in the investment management team are renowned for our rather pessimistic economic views and are affectionately called the ‘doom and gloom corner’.

Warren Buffett’s test of health
By Merryn Somerset Webb on 26/02/2008 15:34
FOR someone who’s frequently and accurately cited as one of the world’s greatest investors and hailed as a guru by millions, Warren Buffett hasn’t exactly been splashing his cash about over the past few years.

I’m nuts about Brazil
By Merryn Somerset Webb on 19/02/2008 12:34
These days everyone wants a piece of Britain. Hedge fund managers and bonus-rich bankers have long sought status in owning hobby farms, but now that soft commodity prices – from wheat to meat – are soaring, big commercial farmers from Denmark and Ireland are getting in on the game too.

Where to for the FTSE 100 – 5000 or less or 6000 and beyond?
By Mike Lenhoff on 18/02/2008 12:01
Japanese equities have retraced 50 percent of their bull market gain. Maybe it’s time to buy Japan.

There will be blood
By Justin Urquhart Stewart on 18/02/2008 11:37
What an apt title – this recently released film about an early rapacious American oil magnate has provided a most pertinent title for some comments this week.

Electricity supply is a real power struggle
By Merryn Somerset Webb on 11/02/2008 16:59
IMAGINE living near the sea, where the weather is nice all year round, where a four-bed-room house with a lovely garden and direct beach access costs you a mere £100,000 and where the kind of cash that buys you a few hours baby-sitting in Britain gets you a full-time housekeeper. Sounds nice, right?

Xīn Nián Hǎo! – Happy Rat
By Justin Urquhart Stewart on 11/02/2008 11:49
For my Chinese cousins 8 is a very lucky number and thus this year should be one of good joss, but so far the outlook would appear far from positive – in fact more like a 4.

Going on Forever?
By Dr Stephen Barber on 31/01/2008 15:45
Stephen Barber considers investment strategies during the current stage of the market cycle.

Building in Risk Premium – When Enough is Enough!
By Mike Lenhoff on 30/01/2008 14:01
Is it likely that Marks & Spencer will never sell another pair of socks or underwear again - even if Jeremy Paxman won’t be a buyer?

Asia is no safe haven
By Merryn Somerset Webb on 29/01/2008 12:50
So many myths have been shattered in the past few weeks, it’s hard to know where to begin.

FCUK - French Correction UK!
By Justin Urquhart Stewart on 28/01/2008 12:04
Justin Urquhart Stewart in his previous columns has consistently pointed out the poor handling of the Northern Rock crisis. Nothing demonstrates this better than the events of this week in which another banking crisis was narrowly averted in France but handled in a slick and efficient manner.

Market volatility may make 2008 a bumpy ride, but the rollercoaster is still on an upward trend.
By John Clarke on 17/01/2008 15:35
Since the beginning of 2008, conditions within equity markets have become even more difficult than at any stage since the credit crisis started to bite back in the summer.

Is recession in 2008 now inevitable?
By John Clarke on 16/01/2008 15:36
The deepening crisis in the credit markets and the “implosion” of the US real estate sector have convinced many commentators that a recession is now inevitable in the US in 2008.

The next “dead cert”
By Justin Urquhart Stewart on 14/01/2008 14:35
Investment markets thrive on fashion fads and betting on the next “sure fire” investment winners.

Your pound in a pickle
By Merryn Somerset Webb on 08/01/2008 17:58
IN November and December last year it was all but impossible to turn to the feature pages of the papers without reading about the joys of shopping in America.

Beware of Eastern Promise
By Justin Urquhart Stewart on 07/01/2008 13:04
I am not sure when I can last remember such a headline before - but the bold strap line of “Singapore suffers economic growth slowdown” is not one to be seen very often.

Winning with Africa
By Merryn Somerset Webb on 23/12/2007 17:54
THIS is a tricky time of year for anyone who writes about money - the time to flick through the year’s columns and admit what went wrong and why. But let’s start with what went right.

Let’s Lighten Up - For a While at Least!
By Mike Lenhoff on 19/12/2007 17:39
In looking back, we were cautious but optimistic about the prospects for equity markets in 2007.

Volatility is a bear market signal
By David Schwartz on 06/12/2007 11:36
The FTSE-100 turned in a sizzling gain of 178 points on December 5. It may seem odd to issue a bear market warning immediately after such a spurt. But huge inter-day price swings of recent weeks warn UK investors to proceed with caution.

When In A Maelstrom
By Justin Urquhart Stewart on 26/11/2007 09:30
It is difficult to achieve any form of perspective when sitting in the midst of a maelstrom; it is thus all the more important to check the charts to see through the day to day short term buffeting of a financial storm.

Equity seas still choppy, but calm is on the horizon
By John Clarke on 23/11/2007 17:05
Although conditions in world equity markets remained highly volatile in October, most of the major indices still managed to make progress.

China Price or What Price China?
By Justin Urquhart Stewart on 21/11/2007 12:06
China’s greatest export for over a decade was deflation – anything we could make, they could make cheaper – and no doubt still can.

Art will hit the canvas
By Merryn Somerset Webb on 18/11/2007 17:11
ABOUT seven years ago I fell in love with a piece of art at a private view in Shoreditch.

Let’s not go to Angola: a glimpse of the costs and benefits of prison reform
By Martin Vander Weyer on 14/11/2007 14:51
Is prison reform an economic issue, as well as a moral and social one?

Avoid City rip-offs
By Merryn Somerset Webb on 12/11/2007 12:24
WORKING in the City is mostly boring. Analysts fiddle with balance sheets, wondering what might happen if you moved a number here or there; brokers tell clients much the same stories about the same stocks every day; fund managers buy and sell the same stocks as they go up and down; and traders do much the same – just faster. Apart from the money, not many of these jobs have a lot going for them.

Police Caution
By Richard Hunter on 09/11/2007 15:50
In deciding to maintain interest rates – for the moment – at 5.75%, the Monetary Policy Committee has clearly indicated that the current economic situation is a complex one to call.

Time to bet on Europe
By Merryn Somerset Webb on 05/11/2007 11:37
A FAVOURITE topic of desperate property magazines and supplements these days are the bargains on offer in the US.

US economic cross-winds & the Fed
By IFAs with Unbiased.co.uk on 26/10/2007 16:03
We have long maintained that in order to analyse the investment and economic cycle, it’s vital to understand what is happening in the US as the largest economy in the world.

Forget the credit crisis, try a currency crisis
By Greg Smith on 26/10/2007 13:19
Ever since August, there have been constant references to the credit crisis as the source of the market's (then) woes.

The trouble with India
By Merryn Somerset Webb on 25/10/2007 17:24
I’VE been going on about the risks of investing in property for far too long now, but I’m no longer such a lone voice. The Money section is filled with bad news this week.

Land of the rising stock
By Merryn Somerset Webb on 18/10/2007 13:07
I STARTED suggesting that investors buy into Japan in early 2004. Nothing happened for a while, but at the end of that year it started to look like a brilliant call.

The Uncertainty in Equity and Credit Markets
By Investors Chronicle on 12/10/2007 09:56
In this week's programme we look at the impact that the liquidity crisis is having on the economy.

Always look on the bright side of life
By Justin Urquhart Stewart on 24/09/2007 12:02
The turmoil induced by the ongoing sub-prime saga, its consequential credit crunch and Central Bank reactions have certainly kept markets and commentators very busy this week.

How the spirit of the Rock triumphed over the prudence of the Northern
By Martin Vander Weyer on 19/09/2007 16:21
Hindsight suggests that the Rock was always likely to get the Northern into trouble one day.

Is it Safe to get back into the Water?
By Dr Stephen Barber on 19/09/2007 15:52
Stephen Barber considers how the financial currents have changed since the markets’ choppy August and what this now means for investors.

Jaws is Rampant
By Bobby Rakhit on 17/09/2007 16:30
The credit shark is swimming rampant and is ready to pounce on any signs of weakness.

Go east for growth!
By Investors Chronicle on 14/09/2007 10:43
In this week's programme, we look at how the turmoil in the credit markets is likely to make the mid caps under perform their blue chip rivals.

Chaos in credit markets
By John Clarke on 29/08/2007 00:00
Evidence that the problems in the US subprime mortgage market were spreading to other parts of the economy have taken their toll on world equity markets over the past month or so.

Bad news ahead...
By Sandy Jadeja on 28/08/2007 00:00
The Dow Jones Index is setting up its final stage for another big move. The question is – which way.

Pride before the Fall
By Justin Urquhart Stewart on 20/08/2007 09:47
Only a few weeks ago, and quite justifiably, some of the attitudes and behaviour of certain investment participants could have been described as arrogant – they were hugely successful as they headed off for their Summer holidays, basking in the knowledge that they had made all the right investment decisions.

Worried about the recent market falls?
By Sandy Jadeja on 14/08/2007 09:40
Have you heard the news lately about mortgage worries? Last week we were told that the declines in the markets were caused by concerns on debt.

A New Headmaster – You Had Better Behave Now
By Justin Urquhart Stewart on 13/08/2007 15:51
The US banking and financial system has a new Headmaster. And just like any new leader, the new head wants to change the way things are run.