This week’s price action has made it clear that the Dow does not like the 11,700 level.
The bears did indeed push this index lower and also below a pivot level which means that we could potentially be on the verge of a larger degree decline. With seven failed attempts at the 11,700 level it is evident that a stronger force on the bearish side is more likely and that unless we can rectify the start of this weeks fall, the picture does not look too good.
We seem to have a choppy ABCD type correction into the resistance area and with the RSI now changing direction to the downside we can assume that there is more to follow through if we break below 11,434.
Short term traders will notice that the index is also below its 20 day Moving Average and will be focusing on trading the short side which could also bring momentum traders to drive the market lower.
The decline in Oil prices has still not helped the index to rally higher and with all of these factors, we should be careful not to get on the wrong side of the fence as things can get nasty very quickly here.
For the week ahead, I would be looking at the Dow to get back above 11,535 at the very least to target 12,000 and if we start to head lower then a breach of 11,225 could set the stage for the Dow to head back down towards the 10,700 target.
Momentum indicators are not clear to the next move and it is obvious with the chart pattern that the market is trying to find its feet for a firm footing before taking off again. Either way we can expect volatility to be around for a while. The struggle between the bulls and bears is still on and one side is soon to hold the flag up to give in.
Sandy Jadeja is Chief Market Strategist for ODL Markets and founder of www.Spreadbettingtowin.com where he teaches low risk trading strategies and money management.