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For wetter or worse



By Richard Hunter 22/06/2007 00:00

Even though the Met Office is predicting a warm summer in 2007, it maintains that the heatwaves of 2006 are unlikely to be repeated.


Nevertheless, home owners will be bracing themselves for another round of hosepipe bans and asking why there are worldwide shortages of water, given that the earth is largely covered by this most basic of liquids.

Indeed, here in the UK, maybe it has not been quite as dire as the drought of 1976, but it has been noted that there are comparisons as the hottest July day on record was recorded last year.

There are, of course, certain shares or sectors which are likely to benefit from such hot periods - breweries, the soft drinks industry, the electrical industry as more power is required for cooling and, as such, air conditioning manufacturers!

One group which has been in the news recently - and not always for the right reasons - is the water companies. It would appear that water problems are not exclusive to the UK. Many other countries in Europe are also experiencing difficulties and, as one would probably expect, the likes of the US (where individuals on average consume 600 litres per day) and the larger arid plains are proving a drain on natural resources.

A previous article in "Money Week", suggested that things are no better elsewhere. In China, the Gobi desert is spreading south, turning farmland into desert; in Australia, the "El Nino" effect is evaporating water in the atmosphere; the US is suffering from a severe five year drought; and in India, shrinking glaciers are having their effect also.

This all comes at a time when demand is as high as ever. Electricity, for example, needs to be produced from pure water sources, not the salt water which covers most of the earth's surface. In addition, the world's fastest growing economy, China - which is estimated to account for 25% of global steel demand - quite apart from the Gobi problem suffers from the fact that 20 000 gallons of fresh water are required to produce just one ton of steel.

Anyone living in London or the South East will be familiar with hosepipe bans, water leakages and the knowledge that much of the London infrastructure, for example, is made up of Victorian water pipes which have simply given up the ghost.

Putting the environmental concerns to one side, this surge in demand - even if the actual supply is becoming more expensive - is of course generally good news for the water companies in the longer term.

The utility sector has generally been regarded as the dour, even dull, sector in comparison to some of the racier sectors to be found listed on the market. Yet, man cannot live by bread alone - he needs water, electricity and gas. Due in part to their strong, stable earnings as a result of providing a basic need, the utility companies are seen as defensive stocks, which investors turn to in times of turbulence.

Turbulence such as the period in which we find ourselves today perhaps? The market corrections as seen in March and May, the flight to safer havens for risk averse investors, the uncertainties regarding US inflation, interest rates and of course the political unrest in the Middle East – are all factors which add to the current unease in global markets.

In terms of the FTSE100, there are a number of utility companies, but two of the better known water "plays" are United Utilities and Severn Trent.

United Utilities has performed in line with the market over the last year, planning as it does to sell off some of its assets and returning the capital to shareholders. However, there are some concerns that at current levels, some of the utilities are actually priced at a premium to the value given to them by the regulator. As such, the market consensus for both UU and Severn Trent is a begrudging hold. Without question, though, UU benefits from both its defensive qualities as well as its whopping 6% yield (the average for the FTSE100 is 3% at present).

An emerging trend seems to be going "back to basics" to concentrate on core operations, such as Severn Trent, which demerged its Biffa waste management unit and returned a good proportion of this to shareholders. Again, of course it is a defensive play in awkward times and has a very reasonable yield of over 4%.

A final thought - when the legendary US investor Warren Buffett bought Scottish Power's US subsidiary Pacificorp in 2005, he mentioned that he was interested in buying more utility companies, including UK water and electricity firms.

Perhaps utilities will never be "high fashion" in the eyes of the market, but if bid speculation can be added to stable earnings and punchy yields, perhaps tradition needs to be re-evaluated as the world around us changes.


If you’d like to read more free research, comment and analysis from me and the rest of my colleagues at Hargreaves Lansdown please visit our website at www.H-L.co.uk

Richard J Hunter

Head of UK Equities

Hargreaves Lansdown

www.hargreaveslansdown.co.uk



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