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John Clarke archive




John was appointed Chief Investment Officer at GHC Capital Markets Limited in September 2004, taking specific responsibility for GHC’s Collective Investments Team and all in-house macroeconomic research.

Prior to joining GHC Capital Markets Limited, John was Director of John Clarke Economics Limited, Chief Economist at Norwich Union Investment Management and spent five years in the Government Economic Service, at H M Treasury and the Department of Employment, rising to the rank of Economic Adviser.

 
Equity markets after Lehman Brothers and Merrill Lynch
Just when investors were beginning to believe the worst of the financial market turmoil might actually be over (hence the run up in the FTSE 100 index to 5636 at the end of August), the credit crunch goes and claims its biggest casualties yet.

Date of publication 17/09/2008 11:20

Weak Q2 GDP figures open the door for lower interest rates
Following the release of the June industrial production figures, it was always likely that the preliminary second quarter GDP figures would be revised down a shade.

Date of publication 29/08/2008 16:38

Surprise, surprise – the US consumer saves all of Bush’s tax cuts and still continues to spend
The May US personal income and outlay figures published at the end of last week told us two things. First, when the US consumer is suddenly “given” a cash windfall in this case, tax refund cheques equivalent to $400bn (at annualised rates) in May after $15.5bn in April, he or she is more likely to save it than spend it.

Date of publication 04/07/2008 11:17

May Bank of England Inflation Report – Are interest rate cuts off the agenda until 2010?
The May Bank of England Inflation Report made for sombre reading. Already a full percentage point above the government’s target at 3.0% in April, the Bank now expects inflation to rise to around 3.7% over the coming months, before falling back only slowly to 2.0% in 2010.

Date of publication 21/05/2008 11:16

Will rising UK inflation prevent lower interest rates?
As expected, the headline measure of consumer price inflation rose further above target in February, climbing from 2.2% in January to 2.5%.

Date of publication 25/03/2008 10:52

March 2008 Budget Report
As he stood to deliver his first Budget Statement, we couldn’t help feeling just a teeny bit sorry for Alistair Darling.

Date of publication 13/03/2008 10:06

Interpreting the mixed signals from the latest UK inflation data
Monday’s figures showing producer output price inflation in January had risen to a 16 year high caused major concern within UK financial markets, with share prices falling back sharply as a result.

Date of publication 14/02/2008 16:01

Time to Buy!
The slump in share prices in Asia overnight, on top of losses in the UK and Europe, made for an uncomfortable opening in London this morning.

Date of publication 23/01/2008 11:29

Market volatility may make 2008 a bumpy ride, but the rollercoaster is still on an upward trend.
Since the beginning of 2008, conditions within equity markets have become even more difficult than at any stage since the credit crisis started to bite back in the summer.

Date of publication 17/01/2008 15:35

Is recession in 2008 now inevitable?
The deepening crisis in the credit markets and the “implosion” of the US real estate sector have convinced many commentators that a recession is now inevitable in the US in 2008.

Date of publication 16/01/2008 15:36

UK Bank Rate cut by a quarter point as MPC focuses on growing downside risks to the UK economy
Views within financial markets on the outlook for the economy and inflation have fluctuated wildly during the course of this year.

Date of publication 11/12/2007 10:42

Fears over downturn heightened by October lending figures
This morning’s Bank of England figures on net lending to the UK personal sector in October made for interesting reading.

Date of publication 29/11/2007 18:04

Equity seas still choppy, but calm is on the horizon
Although conditions in world equity markets remained highly volatile in October, most of the major indices still managed to make progress.

Date of publication 23/11/2007 17:05

Chaos in credit markets
Evidence that the problems in the US subprime mortgage market were spreading to other parts of the economy have taken their toll on world equity markets over the past month or so.

Date of publication 29/08/2007 00:00

Another hike like base rates - but is 5 1/2% the peak?
Unlike its previous two increases, yesterday’s decision by the MPC to raise interest rates by a further quarter point had been fully expected.

Date of publication 05/06/2007 21:12

Suggestions of a return of pricing power overblown
In an article in the Sunday Times on 1 April, David Smith, the paper’s Economics editor argued that there were mounting signs of companies “flexing their muscles to push up prices”.

Date of publication 13/04/2007 00:00

March Budget 2007
In his first Budget in 1997, Gordon Brown surprised financial markets by granting operational independence – essentially responsibility for setting interest rates - to the Bank of England.

Date of publication 21/03/2007 00:00

Shanghai Surprise
The news that shares in Shanghai had fallen more than 9% - their biggest one day decline in more than a decade – sent most major global equity markets sharply lower yesterday.

Date of publication 01/03/2007 00:00

What does the January “Philly Fed” Survey tell us about the US Economy?
Yesterday the Philadelphia Federal Reserve reported, in its Business Outlook Survey, that its current general activity diffusion index had slumped from -1.6 in December to -20.9 in January, the lowest since October 2001.

Date of publication 21/01/2007 16:59

MPC raises interest rates to 5.25%
Today’s decision by the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee took financial markets by surprise, at least as regards its timing.

Date of publication 12/01/2007 00:00

Does September’s fall in the Philly Fed Survey mean the US economy is heading for recession?
Fears that the US economy is heading for a hard landing were rekindled by the news that the Philadelphia (Philly) Federal Reserve’s current activity index had fallen sharply from 18.5 in August to -0.4 in September, the first negative reading since April 2003.

Date of publication 26/09/2006 00:00

MPC raises interest rates by a quarter-point to 4.75% - Inflation worries overdone
The Bank of England’s decision today to raise interest rates by a quarter-point to 4.75% - precisely one year after it cut them by the same amount – came as something of a surprise to financial markets despite the fact that short sterling futures have been fully discounting two quarter-point hikes in the next 12 months for some time.

Date of publication 03/08/2006 00:00

US core consumer prices – higher rates now guaranteed?
Overall US consumer prices rose by 0.4% in May, just as financial markets had been expecting, with the rising cost of energy, which climbed a further 2.4% on the month (with gasoline prices rising 4.8%) again the main factor putting upward pressure on the index.

Date of publication 15/06/2006 00:00




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