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David Schwartz archive




Independent stock market historian David Schwartz is well-known to most UK investors. His widely-read Schwartz Stock Market Handbook can be found on most City trading desks and he is frequently interviewed by BBC, CNBC and Bloomberg television. He is a regular contributor to the FT and BBC Ceefax. 

 

 
Changing Bear Market Trends
Bear markets are occurring more often than ever before. Financial institutions have a lot to answer for.

Date of publication 15/08/2008 15:49

Ststematic record keeping is important
Here are some simple ways to monitor your trading performance. If done on a regular basis, it might even improve your long-term profits.

Date of publication 18/07/2008 14:53

Handsome Dividends For Free
The London Stock Exchange web site offers a gold mine of information to private investors. Best of all, it is free

Date of publication 27/06/2008 11:44

For a prosperous retirement, you must save more today
Stock market investments out-perform other investment classes by a healthy margin. Even so, many investors expect too much from their investment programme. The painful truth is that long-term benefits are much smaller than is commonly recognised.

Date of publication 28/05/2008 15:43

Fresh facts about the Bear Market of 2007-08
Here are some fresh signals about the health of the stock market. If history is to be believed, this patient is still quite ill.

Date of publication 01/04/2008 15:47

History warns this bear market has further to run
During the last century, long-running bull markets were always followed by painful bear markets. Sad to say, the bull run of 2003-7 was a long-runner.

Date of publication 17/03/2008 11:12

Do January price swings have predictive value?
Some claims about January's predictive power are not very accurate or useful. But one aspect of the January record is worth thinking about during 2008

Date of publication 07/02/2008 13:16

The Bull Market Cupboard is Bare
Several long-running historical trends warn that the UK stock market is likely to finish 2008 in the red.

Date of publication 04/01/2008 12:02

Volatility is a bear market signal
The FTSE-100 turned in a sizzling gain of 178 points on December 5. It may seem odd to issue a bear market warning immediately after such a spurt. But huge inter-day price swings of recent weeks warn UK investors to proceed with caution.

Date of publication 06/12/2007 11:36

Time for short term traders to take centre stage
We live in perilous times. If you want to invest, think short-term. Here is a strategy that can help you to turn a profit.

Date of publication 19/11/2007 15:42

Placing September's Rally Into A Meaningful Perspective
Current economic reports do a poor job of predicting when a bear market will begin. But history occasionally provides us with a useful perspective about what lurks just ahead.

Date of publication 08/10/2007 12:12

Beware of earnings reports released on Friday at 4.30pm
Some companies try to bury negative news by releasing it late Friday, near the closing bell. Perhaps they hope investors will mellow by Monday morning after a relaxing weekend of golf and gin and tonics.

Date of publication 10/09/2007 13:20

Poor Stock Market Conditions Likely to Continue
History signals that the bear market of 2007 is now underway.

Date of publication 16/08/2007 13:12

No rally runs forever
UK shares have risen steadily for more than four years. Here are some history-linked clues about what might lie ahead.

Date of publication 06/07/2007 00:00

Are shares ready to peak? History signals not just yet
History teaches that modest gains in January to May, like we saw this year, are usually followed by further gains in the rest of the year.

Date of publication 01/06/2007 20:30

Can Anyone Predict Bear Markets From Current Economic or Political Events?
History teaches that it is virtually impossible to predict the arrival of a new bear market based upon current economic or political conditions.

Date of publication 12/04/2007 00:00

Is this a bull market? bear market? History's verdict.
When stock market prices drop suddenly and sharply, investors worry. History offers a unique perspective about the significance of the current decline.

Date of publication 06/03/2007 11:54

Mirror, Mirror Upon The Wall. Who is The Fairest Index Of All?
There is no such thing as a single best UK index for private investors to monitor. Serious investors must watch several or suffer the consequences.

Date of publication 02/02/2007 00:00

US Election Cycle Rally is Alive and Well
Hard to believe but true. The UK stock market advanced 14 consecutive times in the year before a US presidential election. 2007 is number 15 in the series.

Date of publication 05/01/2007 00:00

Yesterday's Story: November to April - The year's sweet spot
Recent historical evidence suggests the advantages of investing in winter and spring months is a thing of the past.

Date of publication 01/12/2006 00:00

AIM Investments Require Careful Aim
AIM-listed shares have done quite well in the last three years. But newly-listed companies are best avoided.

Date of publication 06/11/2006 00:00

October's Record: A Bum Rap
The headlines are frequently worrying but undeserved. October is often a profitable month.

Date of publication 09/10/2006 00:00

Do Chancellors affect the stock market?
Some investors believe, posturing and political theatre aside, that Labour and Conservative Chancellors have no real long-term affect on the stock market. They are wrong.

Date of publication 11/09/2006 00:00

Channel your strategy with trading channels
UK shares have risen within a well-defined trading channel for over three years. History signals the channel will soon end. Here are clues about what might lie ahead.

Date of publication 28/07/2006 00:00

Despite the recent rally, big May-June declines send a worrying signal
Shares are currently in rally mode. But the May to mid-June dip remains a worrying sign. It is not just the size of that decline. The length of time is worth considering as well.

Date of publication 03/07/2006 00:00

Is the bull market of 2003-2006 dead and buried?
Many commentators are bullish about stock market prospects in the months ahead. But history is decidedly negative.

Date of publication 01/06/2006 00:00

American Election Cycles Periodically Slam UK Investors
US presidents traditionally do whatever is necessary to win elections. Unfortunately, the world economy often feels the effects of these pre-election bribes a few years later. If history is any guide, pay back time is approaching.

Date of publication 01/05/2006 00:00

Check the calendar before you invest
Profit prospects vary on different days in the typical month. The most favourable profit odds appear around month-end.

Date of publication 01/04/2006 00:00

Good Trading Prospects Often Surround Budget Day
Don’t let a newspaper headline spook you into making an unnecessary trade. The UK stock market often behaves in a predictable fashion around Budget Day.

Date of publication 03/03/2006 00:00

The January Rule: Some sense. Much nonsense.
Much of what is reported about January’s magical predictive power is inaccurate. But some morsels from the historical record are worth thinking about.

Date of publication 01/02/2006 00:00

Prospects For 2006 Are Worrying
Shares sharply rose in 2005, the third double-digit gain in a row. Many investors are cautiously optimistic for 2006. But history’s verdict is decidedly negative.

Date of publication 09/12/2005 00:00

YEAR-END RALLY. FACT OR FICTION?
Many stock market old wives tales don't stand up to objective scrutiny. The widely anticipated year-end rally is a welcomed exception to the rule.

Date of publication 02/12/2005 00:00

November to April. Money Making/Money Losing Time? Here Are The Facts.
Investing in UK shares can be quite profitable in November to April, especially during bull markets. But the bear market trend frequently disappoints investors.

Date of publication 01/11/2005 00:00

Bull Markets Do Not Rise Forever
History teaches the typical bull market rally runs for a much shorter period of time than is commonly assumed.

Date of publication 05/10/2005 00:00

Garbage companies but not garbage shares
Companies that process or recycle household and industrial waste are worth a second look.

Date of publication 06/09/2005 00:00

Don’t be terrorized into selling
History teaches that terrorism has no lasting effect on shares. Treat any knee-jerk sell-off as a buying opportunity.

Date of publication 11/08/2005 00:00

Day trading and interest rate announcements are a tough way to make a living
Trade cautiously. A few profit windows do exist when the MPC issues its monthly announcement but the stock market often does not behave as expected.

Date of publication 07/07/2005 00:00

Take a Bet on Gambling Shares
There are four segments of the gambling industry. If you are thinking of dipping your toe into this sector, here are pitfalls to avoid.

Date of publication 06/06/2005 00:00

Electricity: Defensive Shares For Worrying Times
Sector shares often do better than average during bear markets and during the summer doldrums.

Date of publication 29/04/2005 00:00

Sell In May and Go Away? Not So Fast.
Will shares fall this year from May to October? A simple trend to monitor at the end of April might tip the answer.

Date of publication 07/04/2005 00:00

Food Producers & Processors likely to produce a sour taste
This sector will be held back by health concerns and a loss of pricing power for a long time.

Date of publication 09/03/2005 00:00

Pharmaceutical Sector: No Longer in Intensive Care
Ignore upsetting news headlines. Pharmaceutical shares have bottomed out. Here is how to gauge prospects for a new sector-wide bull market

Date of publication 09/02/2005 00:00

History warns of weak 2005 stock market prospects
Stock Market Historian David Schwartz correctly forecast the UK price trend in 2003 and 2004. His view for 2005 will disappoint those hoping for three gains in a row.

Date of publication 30/12/2004 00:00

Check the calendar. Money-making time has arrived
It is important to hold shares during the winter months.

Date of publication 01/12/2004 00:00

Mining Sector: Digging Up Important Data
Volatility is a fact of life in this fast-moving sector. Here are some clues to help you to intelligently invest in mining shares.

Date of publication 01/11/2004 00:00

Computer Hardware Shares: Buckle Up for a Wild Ride
Here are some guidelines on how to play the FTSE-IT Hardware sector.

Date of publication 01/10/2004 00:00

Share tipsters: choose cautiously
There are huge differences in quality between rival share tipping services. Here are tips that tip the best tipster.

Date of publication 31/08/2004 00:00

Shares Likely to Rise By Year-End
Ignore opinions from doom and gloomsters. Objective historical facts suggest positive prospects for the second-half of 2004.

Date of publication 02/08/2004 00:00

House Builders: Trouble ahead
Sector shares typically do not advance during interest rate up-cycles

Date of publication 14/06/2004 00:00


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