Are shares ready to peak? History signals not just yet
History teaches that modest gains in January to May, like we saw this year, are usually followed by further gains in the rest of the year.
Date of publication: 01/06/2007
Can Anyone Predict Bear Markets from Current Economic or Political Events?
History teaches that it is virtually impossible to predict the arrival of a new bear market based upon current economic or political conditions.
Date of publication: 12/04/2007
Is this a bull market? bear market? History's verdict.
When stock market prices drop suddenly and sharply, investors worry. History offers a unique perspective about the significance of the current decline.
Date of publication:06/03/2007
Mirror, Mirror Upon The Wall. Who is The Fairest Index Of All?
There is no such thing as a single best UK index for private investors to monitor. Serious investors must watch several or suffer the consequences.
Date of publication: 02/02/2007
US Election Cycle Rally is Alive and Well
Hard to believe but true. The UK stock market advanced 14 consecutive times in the year before a US presidential election. 2007 is number 15 in the series.
Date of publication: 05/01/2007
Yesterday's Story: November to April - The year's sweet spot
Recent historical evidence suggests the advantages of investing in winter and spring months is a thing of the past.
Date of publication: 01/12/2006
AIM investments require a careful aim
AIM-listed shares have done quite well in the last three years. But newly-listed companies are best avoided.
Date of publication: 06/11/2006
October's Record: A Bum Rap
The headlines are frequently worrying but undeserved. October is often a profitable month.
Date of publication: 09/10/2006
Do Chancellors affect the stock market?
Some investors believe, posturing and political theatre aside, that Labour and Conservative Chancellors have no real long-term affect on the stock market. They are wrong.
Date of publication: 11/09/2006
Channel your strategy with trading channels
UK shares have risen within a well-defined trading channel for over three years. History signals the channel will soon end. Here are clues about what might lie ahead.
Date of publication: 28/07/2006
Despite the recent rally, big May-June declines send a worrying signal
Shares are currently in rally mode. But the May to mid-June dip remains a worrying sign. It is not just the size of that decline. The length of time is worth considering as well.
Date of publication: 03/07/2006
Is the bull market of 2003-2006 dead and buried?
Many commentators are bullish about stock market prospects in the months ahead. But history is decidedly negative.
Date of publication: 01/06/2006
American Election Cycles Periodically Slam UK Investors
US presidents traditionally do whatever is necessary to win elections. Unfortunately, the world economy often feels the effects of these pre-election bribes a few years later. If history is any guide, pay back time is approaching.
Date of publication: 01/05/2006
Check the calendar before you invest
Profit prospects vary on different days in the typical month. The most favourable profit odds appear around month-end.
Date of publication: 01/04/2006
Good Trading Prospects Often Surround Budget Day
Don’t let a newspaper headline spook you into making an unnecessary trade. The UK stock market often behaves in a predictable fashion around Budget Day.
Date of publication: 03/03/2006
The January Rule: Some sense. Much nonsense.
Much of what is reported about January’s magical predictive power is inaccurate. But some morsels from the historical record are worth thinking about.
Date of publication: 01/02/2006
Prospects For 2006 Are Worrying
Shares sharply rose in 2005, the third double-digit gain in a row. Many investors are cautiously optimistic for 2006. But history’s verdict is decidedly negative.
Date of publication: 09/12/2005
Year-end rally. Fact or fiction?
Many stock market old wives tales don't stand up to objective scrutiny. The widely anticipated year-end rally is a welcomed exception to the rule.
Date of publication: 02/12/2005
November to April. Money making/money losing time?
Investing in UK shares can be quite profitable in November to April, especially during bull markets. But the bear market trend frequently disappoints investors.
Date of publication: 01/11/2005
Bull Markets do not rise forever
History teaches the typical bull market rally runs for a much shorter period of time than is commonly assumed.
Date of publication: 05/10/2005
Garbage companies but not garbage shares
Companies that process or recycle household and industrial waste are worth a second look.
Date of publication: 06/09/2005
Don't be terrorized into selling
History teaches that terrorism has no lasting effect on shares. Treat any knee-jerk sell-off as a buying opportunity.
Date of publication: 11/08/2005
Day trading and interest rate announcements are a tough way to make a living
Trade cautiously. A few profit windows do exist when the MPC issues its monthly announcement but the stock market often does not behave as expected.
Date of publication: 07/07/2005
Take a bet on gambling
There are four segments of the gambling industry. If you are thinking of dipping your toe into this sector, here are pitfalls to avoid.
Date of publication: 06/06/2005
Electricity: Defensive shares for worrying times
Sector shares often do better than average during bear markets and during the summer doldrums.
Date of publication: 29/04/2005
Sell in May and Go Away? Not So Fast
Will shares fall this year from May to October? A simple trend to monitor at the end of April might tip the answer.
Date of publication: 7/04/2005
Food Producers & Processors likely to produce a sour taste
This sector will be held back by health concerns and a loss of pricing power for a long time.
Date of publication: 9/03/2005
Pharmaceutical Sector: No Longer in Intensive Care
Ignore upsetting news headlines. Pharmaceutical shares have bottomed out. Here is how to gauge prospects for a new sector-wide bull market
Date of publication: 9/02/2005
History warns of a weak 2005
Stock Market Historian David Schwartz correctly forecast the UK price trend in 2003 and 2004. His view for 2005 will disappoint those hoping for three gains in a row.
Date of publication: 30/12/2005
Check the calendar. Money making time has arrived.
It is important to hold shares during the winter months.
Date of publication: 01/12/2004
Mining Sector: Digging Up Important Data
Volatility is a fact of life in this fast-moving sector. Here are some clues to help you to intelligently invest in mining shares.
Date of publication: 01/11/2004
Computer hardware shares: buckle Up for a wild ride
Here are some guidelines on how to play the FTSE-IT Hardware sector.
Date of publication: 01/10/2004
Share tipsters: choose carefully
There are huge differences in quality between rival share tipping services. Here are tips that tip the best tipster.
Date of publication: 31/08/2004
Shares likely to rise by year-end
Ignore opinions from doom and gloomsters. Objective historical facts suggest positive prospects for the second-half of 2004.
Date of publication: 02/08/2004
House builders: Trouble ahead
Bank of England governor, Mervyn Field recently added to the chorus of voices warning the UK housing market is vulnerable to a fall. Given that King heads the interest rate-setting Monetary Policy Committee, his warning is especially noteworthy. To read more click here.
Date of publication: 14/06/2004